Climate Change of the Severity and the Frequency of the Occurrence of Natural Disasters - Term Paper Example

Crisis Management Name Course Instructor Date Introduction Ever since the tsunami that took place in the Indian Ocean in the year 2004, there have been a number of stakeholders who have been involved in extensive work that has been carried out to support the development of the elements of the tsunami warning system in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean (PTWC, 2008). There has been progress especially when it comes to the establishment of watch provider services for the tsunami in different countries within the region, and also in the installation of networks of sea level and seismic stations which the warnings normally depend on (SEI Asia, 2008). There are a number of issues that concern the sustainability of these systems and they are important. These could include; the provisions that are ongoing for early warning and local or national budgets (Left, 2006). Five years down the line after the Indian Ocean tsunami disaster, most of the funding that had been established for early warning is currently being phased out. Tsunami warning in most cases is best managed by the use of a multi hazard approach in relation to other hazards that may be related (Nicholson, 2005). Thus early warning has been considered important and has been linked to climate change, as climate change in most cases is normally expected to increase the severity and the frequency of the occurrence of natural disasters. Institutional arrangements and governance The Southeast Asian region and the Indian Ocean have a number of institutions that are important in the contribution of the coordination of the aspects of disaster risk reduction (Monecke, 2008). The coordination of the warning system within the region is normally done by the Intergovernmental Coordination Group, alongside other countries in Southeast Asia which the Intergovernmental Coordination Group covers in the Pacific (Left, 2006). There has been intensive work that has been carried out following the Indian Ocean tsunami by many countries in the development of disaster management laws and even institutions. At the moment, there is even additional work which is aimed at developing and implementing Standard Operating procedures and regulations at different levels (PTWC, 2008). There have been sea level stations and seismic stations installed to fill gaps that the Tsunami Early Warning System has in its network. However, many countries face challenges in the level of expertise that they have and even the necessary funding that is needed in the management and sustaining of these stations (Nicholson, 2005). There thus needs to be support that is ongoing to aid in the maintenance and operation of the regional warning and monitoring network so that the performance of the system works over a longer period (SEI Asia, 2008). There is a major need to strengthen the systems that are used in the dissemination and communication of the warning systems more so in the downstream level (Monecke, 2008). There are many countries that have developed Standard operating Procedures to aid in the warning of tsunamis, but they are only tested and even fully developed in only handful of these countries(Nicholson, 2005). The gaps that are still present include redundant and clear channels of communication even up to the community level, and design of the warning system that are understandable and clear warning messages useable by the end users (PTWC, 2008). The channels of communication that are available for the warning systems within a country, is capable of determining or reflecting the level of development of the communications network within a country (Monecke, 2008). Preparedness and response strategies There has been intensive work that has been carried out on the level of preparedness in the community as well as the response strategies in many countries in areas that have been selected. A program that is comprehensive is normally not present in most of the cases. There have been several drills done in the region that had the Indian Ocean tsunami but there has not been any comprehensive regional program for the drills and even the assessment of the status of the Tsunami Emergency Warning System over the long term (Left, 2006). There are many organisations and individuals involved in this area and so are the gaps in awareness operating procedures and education. The Indian Ocean tsunami that was so destructive in the year 2004 brought up the need for an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System to aid in the identification and mitigation of risks that are associated with tsunamis (PTWC, 2008). It was in the year 2005 that a trust fund was set up by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific that was aimed at catering for the Tsunami Early Warning Systems within Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The fund that was set up has been receiving contributions from some governments such as the Swedish government, Turkish government, Thai government and the Nepalese government (Nicholson, 2005). The fund’s main aim is to aid in the enhancement and building of the tsunami early warning capabilities which should be in line with the needs of the Southeast Asian countries and the Indian Ocean. The funds act as a resource mechanism that is aimed at filling the gaps that are present in the capacity of the system, by building technical institutional, system wide and other capacities for the development of these early warning systems in the context of the tsunamis and other related hazards (Nicholson, 2005). Prior to the occurrence of the Indian Ocean tsunami, the Tsunami Early Warning systems that were monitoring the region were not yet well developed, in December 2004. In addition, the coastal populations which included the tourists were not educated, and the emergency communication systems did not work, thus less preparation to respond to the tsunami warnings and the calls that were being called for evacuation (PTWC, 2008). Thus this led to the countries that were affected to fail in their response to the tsunami threat. As a matter of fact, some of the countries that were hit by the tsunami or even affected by it had Tsunami Early Warning Systems, which were monitoring the areas that had the greatest threat, especially in the Pacific shores. It was then thus important to establish Tsunami Early Warning Systems within Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean to reduce the loss of life, property and livelihoods significantly. Therefore, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO together with the World Meteorological Organization identified important national points and national centers to work on a daily basis to ensure that there is a framework for early tsunami warning (Left, 2006). There were several rounds of negotiations that were held in the year 2005 by the members of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO and a consensus was reached to build a tsunami warning system that is interconnected and distributed (Left, 2006). A warning system that is complete and effective normally comprises of four elements that are inter related which spans from the knowledge of hazards and the vulnerabilities and even to the level of preparedness and the ability to respond. The risk knowledge is in most cases involved with the systematic collection of data that is important in the undertaking of the risk assessment (Nicholson, 2005). The risk knowledge will ensure that questions such as if the hazards and the vulnerabilities that are present are well known, and what are the patterns that at represent in these factors and what are their trends? And finally the risk knowledge will try and find out if the risk maps and the data to be used are widely available or not (SEI Asia, 2008). The monitoring and warning service aims at developing the monitoring of hazards and the establishment of early warning systems. The questions that the monitoring and warning service aims at answering include if the parameters are the right ones being monitored, if the basis for making the forecasts is a sound in terms of science and finally it seeks to answer if accurate and timely warnings can be made (PTWC, 2008). Dissemination and communication aims at communicating the risk information and providing the early warnings. The questions that it aims at answering include if the warnings reach all the people who are at risk, are the risks and warnings that are being transmitted being understood by the recipients and finally if the warning information is clear enough and is it useable. The response capability aims at building national and community response capabilities. The questions that it aims to answer are whether the response plans are up to date and have they been tested. Also to be answered by this concept is whether the local capacities and the knowledge that is available are being made use of. Finally whether the people are prepared or even ready to react in a manner that is aimed at ensuring their safety after the warnings have been issued to them (PTWC, 2008). A good warning system should have all the four elements linked within its framework. The major stakeholders that are involved in the different elements should ensure that they hold meetings that are aimed at ensuring that they understand all the other components and what is needed from them by the other parties. There should be a provision for putting up risk scenarios so as to be able to review any of the possibilities possible. Certain responsibilities through the chain should be agreed upon then implemented. Past events that have ever occurred should be investigated and certain improvements should be undertaken to improve the early warning system (Left, 2006). The manuals to be used and the procedures to be followed should also be agreed upon and published for reference sake. The communities that are involved should be consulted and informed by disseminating the findings that these investigations produce. The procedures that are linked with the operations involved should also be tested and practiced for instance the evacuation procedures (Nicholson, 2005). All these activities can only be successful if a solid base of support from the political side, laws and regulations that have been enforced, responsibility within the institutions as well as the people who are trained. Once this is ensured, then the early warning systems can be established and then they can be supported as policies and the level of preparation to respond will be engrained within such societies (Left, 2006). As opposed to carrying out these Tsunami Early Warning Systems as activities that are separate, they can be carried out as a part of a multi hazard Early Warning System that is aimed at addressing al the hazards that are threatening to the masses and it should include all the stakeholders who are accountable so as to improve the economies of scale, the sustainability and efficiency all also to be put in to consideration is the needs of the end users (SEI Asia, 2008). Thus it is much better to put in place a multi hazard Early Warning System as opposed to a single hazard warning system, thus providing better reliability and functionality which will aim at supporting the warning of high intensity events as well as dangerous ones like tsunamis that normally occur infrequently. The Tsunami Early Warning System is normally much easier to support when it is linked to similar institutions, staff that are trained and technology that is advanced and is capable of monitoring other hazards. The multi hazard systems also aid the public in understanding the risks that they are capable of facing and even aid in the reinforcement of desired level of preparedness to the actions to be taken and the behaviors that are linked to the warning response (PTWC, 2008). Governance and institutional arrangements Governance and institutional arrangements that are well developed both in the national and international level are the main foundations for a successful development of early warning systems that are sound as well as their sustainability (Lassa, 2008). Indicators that are capable of showing the commitment of political leaders is the level of resources that have been allocated and their efficiency in their use by the actors that are involved (Left, 2006). Some of the means that can be used to foster participation is to ensure that there is decentralization of authority and also the capacity building and the devotion of these resources even to the local and provincial levels (Lassa, 2008). Thus, the Tsunami Early Warning System works as part of the overall Disaster Risk Reduction system. Some of the key foundations of the Disaster Risk Reduction and the Early Warning System are the laws and the regulations which guide the functionality of such systems, clearly state the roles and the responsibilities as well as the resources are dedicated to warning, response and finally recovery. Ever since the tsunami disaster that took place n the Indian Ocean in the year 2004, countries such as Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand have undergone national disaster legislation and passed it (Lassa, 2008). Recommendations These are some of the recommendations that can aid in the mitigation of such disasters in the future. There should be support provided at the national level to ensure that laws and regulations are enforced through the development policies that are deemed to be relevant and Standard Operating Procedures (Left, 2006). Promotion of sustainability and ensuring that funds are adequate; so as to be able to achieve Tsunami Early Warning Systems objectives by ensuring that project interventions are linked with the funds that have been earmarked for Tsunami Early Warning Systems within the national budgets (PTWC, 2008). The promotion of efficiency by the use of sharing arrangements within the regions of the resources is also another good recommendation and so is the multi hazard approach. The presence of support links which can be present between institutional arrangements within the different levels of governance, ranging from the regional level up to the national level, the provincial levels and the community levels, and including the end to end Standard Operating Procedures (UN OCHA, 2009). Another good recommendation is the supporting of research ion the historical occurrence of such hazardous events especially tsunamis. There should be a special focus towards the areas that have the highest potential for risk, and are yet to be studied for instance areas such as Java, Makran, Arakan, Andaman – Nicobar and the South China Sea (Left, 2006). There should also be continued support to increase the coverage that is accorded to the assessments of vulnerability, with much emphasis on the local level. The application and development of standardized risk marking should be supported as well as the guidelines of risk assessment (PTWC, 2008). Capacity development should be supported for system compatibility, standardized information storage, the accessibility of data and their use in the reduction for disaster risk. The promotion of long term financial and support that is similar to ensure that there is sustainability of sea level and seismic instrumentation networks, and also to ensure that they are maintained (UN OCHA, 2009). The promotion of the use of the network of stations that are used in the measurement of the seismic and sea levels, for the multi hazard purposes to ensure that the likelihood of ongoing maintenance is maximized and thus the continued functioning of the stations and the network as a whole (PTWC, 2008). There should also be review done to check on the effectiveness of the network and also to analyze its geographical coverage (UN OCHA, 2009). Finally, there should be promotion of the national support for the real time, as well as free, timely and open access to data and other information or products for use in the tsunami warning process (Left, 2006). Bibliography Lassa, Jonatan (2008) Governance for the Sustainability of Hazard Early Warning System. An Interdisciplinary Approach, GeoForchungZentrum Potsdam. Lassa, Jonatan (2008) When Heaven (hardly) Meets the Earth: Towards Convergence in Tsunami Early Warning Systems, Proceedings of Indonesian Students’ Scientific Meeting, Delft, The Netherlands. Left, Elizabeth (2006) Recognizing and Incorporating All Resources – Integrating Private Sector Contributions into Aid Coordination Mechanisms: The Tsunami Case. Nicholson, William (2005) Legal Issues: Warning Systems. Monecke, Katrin (2008) A 1,000-year sediment record of tsunami recurrence in northern Sumatra, Nature Magazine 455, 1232 – 1234. Provention Consortium (2006) Tsunami Recovery Impact Assessment and Monitoring System (TRIAMS) Risk Reduction Indicators. PTWC (2008) Interim Advisory Service Report: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Charles McCreery, Director, presentation at Fifth Session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group. Phuket Ministerial Declaration on Regional Cooperation on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangements, Phuket, Thailand, 29 January 2005. SEI Asia (2008) From Knowledge to Action: Learning to go the last mile, participatory assessment of enabling conditions for implementing of the last mile in early warning systems in Asia, progress update for stakeholders no. 1. UN OCHA Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Bangkok (2009) Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural- and Conflict-Related Hazards in Asia-Pacific. Read More