Old dependency ratio(demography) - Lab Report Example

The question remains, what other factors are likely to be varied, simultaneously, along the change? How have people’s behavior been adjusted and in what manners? Whether the high dependency ratio is a burden on working population or the situation is merely another social outcome of the demographic transition; without concluding it to be negative or positive? Figure.1 is a diagram of historical data, projecting “old dependency ratio” in U.S. As graph shows, old dependency ratio has been substantially raised historically due to both lower fertility and reduced mortality of old population.

It is anticipated to sharply increase after 2010s. From year 1950 to 2010 the ODR changed from a value of 0.14 to 0.22, where as the likely jump for the period from 2010 to 2030 will be from a value of 0.22 to 0.35 (all figures are noted approximately) (the change for 20 years after 2010 is almost double the change between 1950 and 2010). The projected sharp increase (from 2010 to 2030) can be interpreted as a result of post WWII baby boom from 1946-1964. From 2010s, some of the babies born between 1946 and 1964 will be over 65.

The diagram indicates that during this period there will be a huge financial burden on rest of the population (the working population). However, it is pre-mature to assume a negative situation without further investigation into more details. Something favorable might be happening as a consequence of demographic changes in the population ratios of the old and young. There are factors which might change as consequence of change in the old dependency ratio. This change might be helpful rather than being adverse.

First of all, let us look at the historical data of expenditure on education. Table 1 and Table 2 show the yearly expenditure on education as well as income over the years. Table 1 shows this data on the