Climate Change on the Population of Checkerspot Butterflies - Essay Example

Model selection was conducted by using ordinary cross-validation to minimize error. Models were fitted to abundance data for adult males. Precipitation data from San Jose and Woodside were corrected for errors by using linear regression. Simulations were run with each of 1,000 bootstrapped samples drawn from two different periods in which each population went extinct. Some of the variables involved in the research were precipitation (W) adult abundance (N) and year (t). A similar simulation was obtained by using bootstrapped precipitation data from other relevant time intervals.

The control involved in the study was the starting population sizes in two periods. The results demonstrate that increased precipitation variability likely caused extinctions of two butterfly populations. It is likely that extremes in annual precipitation reduced the temporal overlap of larvae and plants, which increased larval mortality and the magnitude of population fluctuations. The increasing frequency and severity of weather probably drove both populations extinct within three decades. The hypothesis is proved as the available information contradicts the alternative hypothesis for the extinctions at Jasper Ridge, including plant declines, natural predators, and research impacts.

The unanswered part of the hypothesis is the effect of temperature on the butterfly population.