National Risk Register for China - Essay Example

National Risk Register for China Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Table of contents 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Risk identification 5 Table 1: Classification of probability 6 From the table above, the risks were ranked from 1 to 5 with the scales of Extremely Unlikely (EU) as value 1 and Very Likely (VL) as value 5. 6 Table 2: Classification of Impact 6 Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix 9 Table 3: Background of risks in China 10 Table 4: Risk matrix for China 13 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 18 Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting China 19 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks 21 1.4 Conclusion 24 References 26 List of figures 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Risk identification 5 Table 1: Classification of probability 6 From the table above, the risks were ranked from 1 to 5 with the scales of Extremely Unlikely (EU) as value 1 and Very Likely (VL) as value 5. 6 Table 2: Classification of Impact 6 Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix 9 Table 3: Background of risks in China 10 Table 4: Risk matrix for China 13 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 18 Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting China 19 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks 21 1.4 Conclusion 24 References 26 List of tables 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Risk identification 5 Table 1: Classification of probability 6 From the table above, the risks were ranked from 1 to 5 with the scales of Extremely Unlikely (EU) as value 1 and Very Likely (VL) as value 5. 6 Table 2: Classification of Impact 6 Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix 9 Table 3: Background of risks in China 10 Table 4: Risk matrix for China 13 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 18 Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting China 19 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks 21 1.4 Conclusion 24 References 26 1.0 Introduction China is the most populous nation in the world with more than 1.3 billion people. The East Asia nation has a GDP of US$10.983 trillion is under a communist political state. The country has the most diverse of climates but pollution control, erosion and water quality are major concerns in the country. The government is investing in anti-drought systems and flood prevention construction as well as plans to reduce air pollution. 1.1 Risk identification Identifying risks is a process of describing, recognizing and finding risks. This is a preliminary step in risk analysis followed by risk evaluation based on criteria to determine the tolerable or acceptable levels (Simonsen, 1999). This study identifies hazards and threats to the people and environment of China in terms of lives lost and financial losses to the economy. The risks were identified based on four categories; technical, environmental, social, and political classification of risks. The risks identified are; typhoons and floods, earthquakes, cyber attacks, industrial explosions, Avian Influenza virus, collapsing buildings, piracy, landslides, pipeline bursts, and air pollution. These risks have certain negative consequences that affect humans, environment, political and social relations and the economy. The effects of the risks as well as the likelihood and impact are the most fundamental issues in risk management. To exhaustively identify threats and hazards in China, the risks (threats and hazards) were placed into four categories. While most hazards or threats have different levels of importance, the categories ensured that some risks were not underestimated. Effects: In the comprehensive view of threats and hazards, the impacts of risks were identified on the impact it had on the four categories. For example, human impact looks into the number of people killed, injured or displaced. Economic impact assesses the financial losses to the economy such as loss of employment, destruction of key infrastructure and production facilities. On the other hand, political impact looks into issues such as continued collaboration and cooperation between countries. Probability: The probabilities of these risks were underscored by assessing their probability of occurrence and the impact such negative events will have on China as a nation and people. The criteria of evaluating and assessing the risks are provided below. Table 1: Classification of probability Rank Probability Probability 1 Extremely Unlikely (EU) Event occurs at least every 500 years, or happens under exceptional circumstances 2 Very Unlikely (VU) Event happens between once in 100 and 500 years. Little opportunity of occurrence, no recorded evidence and not expected to occur 3 Unlikely (U) Event occurs once in 10 and 100 years, some opportunity to occur, occurs at some time, and little evidence has been gathered. 4 Likely (L) Event occurs once in 1 to 10 years, regular incidences recorded, or the occurrence is likely. 5 Very Likely (VL) Event occur once or more in a year, or high level of incidences recorded Occurrence is very likely., and may From the table above, the risks were ranked from 1 to 5 with the scales of Extremely Unlikely (EU) as value 1 and Very Likely (VL) as value 5. The impacts of the risks were classified based on effect on health, welfare and life of humans and animals as well as environment and social infrastructure. The risks were ranked from 1 to 9 with the latter being an event with the highest impact. Table 2: Classification of Impact Rank Impact Description 1 Very Low (VL) The event occurs but no persons are affected. However, there are minor injuries of not more than 4 people who will be treated by first aid. There is also localized and simple contamination to water, land and air. It will cost no more than US$200,000, and there is a localized disruption to community services and infrastructure in no more than 48hours 3 Low (L) A reasonable number of people affected with about 4 to 8 fatalities. This event will require medical attention and hospitalization of those affected. There is mass displacement of people for between 2 and 8 days. Regional and simple contamination effects in a short duration and also, local arrangements satisfy personal support. The cost of destruction is between US$ 200,000-$1million, as well as inconvenience despite the little function within the community 5 Moderate (M) About 8 and 20 people are killed with significant others injured or displaced. A significant number of people have been hospitalized. To treat the injured, the concerned bodies will require considerable regional resources. Again, up to 4000 people are evacuated and a large population is displaced or possibly beyond 2-8 days In extended duration or localized effects, there is heavy contamination and destruction between $1million and $2 million. The community partially functioning with some services being available. 7 High (H) The event leads to about 20 to 50 fatalities or deaths. Up to 16,000 people evacuated, and up to 100 serious injuries. There is heavy contamination, and extended duration or widespread effects. The cost is high at $2million and $7million given that the community functioning poorly with minimal emergency services available. 9 Very High (VH) More than 50 people are killed during this event, and more than more than 16,000 people evacuated. A huge number of people are impacted with significant injuries in the hundreds. Again, there are widespread effects on the environment within an extended duration with very heavy contamination. Loss of critical services for a prolonged period. Significant disruption and serious damage to infrastructure, and with no significant support, the community fails to function. It will be note that costs being high cannot warrant a risk to be rated as having extremely very high impact. The risk matrix is provided in the figure below Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix Table 3: Background of risks in China Category Risk Description Environmental Typhoon and floods 19 June, 2015, more than 18 people died in floods that continued to wreak havoc in China. Over the last 4 days, flooding has affected areas of eastern, central and southern, China. According to China's Ministry of Civil Affairs, Storms in a warming climate led to more than 1 foot of rain in 9 hours followed by thunderstorms. In 2013, Xinhua region saw more than 253,000 people affected by rare winter floods for a week. North east china witnessed more than 575 people killed and more than 340 missing in floods triggered by precipitation (IFRC, 2013). In August 2015, the Chinese provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian Death toll rose as rain and wind a large area with damage costs going beyond $1billion. There is need for routine management, construction and planning of flood control works (Kobayashi & Porter, 2012, p. xi). Earthquakes Yunnan and Tangshan provinces of China in 2012 and 2013 Yunnan were hit with earthquakes with magnitude of 6.1.  The earthquake killed about 367 people. Creation of artificial water reservoirs triggers earthquake sequences in India and China (ICSU, 2008). This area has well developed seismic fracture zones where the Philippine plate, the Indian plate and the Pacific plate squeeze well. More than 800 earthquakes  since the start of the 20th century has seen a magnitude 6 quakes killing thousands of people and destroying cities and infrastructure. Landslides A landslide in 2015 left more than 70 people missing and killed two people in southern China.  It may not have been a natural disaster owing to breaches of construction safety rules. Another man-made disaster happened in Shenzhen where a construction waste area created a landslide that led to 91 missing people. Earthquakes and rainfall trigger landslides in many areas of China (Chen, et al. 2012). However, in the same year, 2015, more than 3,000 people became part of the massive rescue effort after a landslide affected south China. In living memory, China has some of the worst landslides in which at least 1,500 people have died since 2010 with mud-slides flowing from mountainous areas. Air pollution The biggest source of air pollution in China is from coal burning. This indicates that China is paying a price for its skyrocketing price, a dirty environment. Heavy industries, plants and power are releasing a cloud of black, dirty air that is costly to health and environment. Air pollution becomes severe problem in China; it not only affects the health of the residents but also adverse effects on the economy (Wang & Mauzerall, 2006). Many children are now growing up with asthma and other respiratory illnesses due to smog that hangs over Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Specific concern is PM 2.5 in air pollution which are particles having an aerodynamic diameter (d< 2.5 μm). The big cities in China such as Xian, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing have the PM 2.5 concentration levels being higher than the air quality guidelines advised by World Health Organization (WHO). Currently, people are vulnerable to health risks that affect the cerebrovascular system and cardiovascular system. There is apparent increase in the probability of premature death and cancer as air pollution costs rise above $2 billion in lost productivity and health costs. The social and economic sustainable development lies on resolving air pollution (Zhang, et al. 2014) Political Cyber attacks Cyber attack is becoming serious in China as hackers threaten the safety of information and databases of United Sates and many European countries. Cyber attacks from China continue to affect private sector databases and U.S. government (Spade, 2012). China is silent on cyber warfare (Zhang, 2012). This has led to strained relations with the US and Australia. Iron Tiger hacking group in China is one of the highly-active groups that continue to illegally access classified government information of other nations. Piracy China is a populous country with increasing case of piracy and violation of intellectual property rights. Microsoft Windows OS has recorded losses in China given the intensity of pirating software and music. Infringement in the People's Republic of China of Music copyright is high. The Chinese TV and film industries have also suffered from multiple forms of Internet protocol piracy (Priest, 2008). The sectors' ability to compete has been weakened. Disney empire remains a great problem in China due to piracy of the iconic films and characters. Technical Pipeline bursts In November 2013, in an eastern Chinese port city, leaked oil from a ruptured pipeline exploded injured 166 and killed at least 35 people (Guo-qing, et al. 2014). The following year, June 2014, also witnessed an underground oil pipeline rupture where oil flowed to the surface and caught fire in northeastern city of Dalian, China. Collapsing buildings In April 2016, a building collapsed in Shanghai which was a newly built 13-storey residential house killing one person. While some causes of collapsing buildings are landslides, human errors are the major cause of many buildings that have been collapsing the last five years (Zhang & Liu, 2008). Industrial explosions From mine collapses to factory explosions to mudslides, China has had a long history of industrial accidents. Explosions and industrial accidents leads to massive economic losses to China (Zongzhi & Xiaomei, 1996). Two massive blasts on the night 21 August 2015 saw the Chinese port city of Tianjin catch massive explosions and fire. More than 44 people were killed and another 520 injured with 66 being on critical condition. In September 2008, a coal mine collapsed killing about 281 people in Shanxi province probably by a mudslide. Social Avian Influenza virus Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus is a human infection virus that has lately affected several provinces of China. On 5 February 2016, more than 28 additional laboratory-confirmed cases notified WHO on the existence of the diseases. So far the human infection, avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, has caused five deaths in China (Zhenzhao, 2015) After the category above, the risks are then transferred into the risk matrix. Risk matrix provides a means of assessing the intensity of the risks then recommending some further action. Common actions recommended are to; accept risks, transfer, mitigate or avoid the risks. The risk matrix table is as shown below. Table 4: Risk matrix for China ID# Risk Impact (I) Probability (P) Risk score I*P Effects Actions recommended 1 Typhoons and floods H(7) H(4) 28 Loss of productive population to the nation Mass displacement of population Submerging of villages and vital infrastructure Deaths due to drowning Create dikes and barriers to prevent flooding Use early warning systems to alert inhabitants Evacuate people to safer and higher grounds Insurance by compensation is one tool to improve the situation of individuals (United Nations, 2008) 2 Earthquakes VH(9) H(4) 36 Financial losses to the nation and disruption of the economy Collapsed buildings Death of people Destruction of property Develop early warning systems Construct buildings that are resistant to high magnitude quakes 3 Landslides H(7) VH(5) 35 Drains national resources to resettle the displaced people Large sections of villages swept down the valley (Chen, et al. 2012) Displacement of population Discourage farming and habitation on steep slopes Grow strong and deep rooted trees to hold back the soil Use remote sensing, and geographic information systems (Zhang, et al. 2002) 4 Air Pollution VH(9) VH(5) 45 The citizens become sick and vulnerable to diseases Children grow up with asthma and other respiratory illnesses Population becomes vulnerable to respiratory infections (Wang & Mauzerall, 2006) Use alternative source of energy Decongest cities and use solar cars to reduce urban emissions from traffic 5 Cyber attacks M(5) VH(5) 25 Rating of a nation reduces as other countries shun cooperation and collaboration Unauthorized access of sensitive information to hackers and terrorists Strain in diplomatic relations between China and the affected countries Create firewall on computer systems Develop adequate security for government databases and classified information (Lindsay, 2014) Prosecute the perpetrators 6 Piracy H(7) VH(5) 35 Financial losses Lack of trust and confidence to innovate or be creative (Priest, 2008) Loss of income for musicians and artists Violation of intellectual property rights Insurance cover for artists and musicians against piracy (Chen, 2009) Prosecute offenders 7 Pipeline bursts H(7) U(3) 21 Financial losses to the country Waste of resources harmful levels intensify (Guo-qing, et al. 2014) Fire explosions in the region of pipeline bursts Leakage harmful to water sources and soil fertility Create proper monitoring systems for the entire pipeline flows Procure air surveillance and fire control systems 8 Collapsing buildings H(7) U(3) 21 Financial losses among tax payers Loss of lives Collateral damage to nearby buildings (Zhang & Liu, 2008) Condemn buildings that are unfit for habitation Observe safety and proper building standards 9 Industrial explosions VH(9) U(3) 27 Financial losses Loss of lives Destruction of property Loss of critical infrastructure Industrial fire safety and strict chemical storage systems are required (Zongzhi & Xiaomei, 1996) Suitable fire extinguishers should be installed 10 Avian Influenza virus M(5) H(4) 20 Strain on financial and human resources at national hospitals Loss of lives Strain in health care Loss of productivity to the nation Provide early warning for the spread of diseases Employ more medics and scientific researchers to investigate the emergence of new diseases From the risk matrix above, air pollution has the highest score, maximum (45) for both impact and likelihood of occurrence. This indicates that air pollution is a great risk to human life, the environment, the economy and political and social relations between governments. The risk is categorized as ‘high risk’ marked RED meaning that the government of China should take immediate action to mitigate and resolve this growing environmental menace that if affecting the productivity of the nation. Landslides, piracy and earthquakes are also marked as ‘high risk’ which also requires the attention of government such as the ministry of civil affairs. Risks such as Avian influenza and collapsed building and pipeline bursts scored low because of the low frequency of occurrence. However, it does not mean that the government of China should treat the risks with little attention but greater preventive measures should be in place to expect and handle such situations as they arise. 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) The figure below shows the approach taken to identify some of the faults and causes of these negative events Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting China From the fault tree analysis above, ‘national losses’ as the top event emerges from a list of contributing events in the form of risks that were earlier categorized. These risks are; environmental, technical, political and social. As indicated in the risk matrix, air pollution is the event that has high risk of all the risks identified. The probable cause is urban congestion and also the existence of too many productive industries letting huge smoke into the atmosphere of cities. These two events have an OR-gate which indicates that the event ‘air pollution’ is built up by two events that happen at the same time. For example, existence of traffic congestion exudes a lot of smoke into the environment while at the same time industries are releasing different types of gases into the atmosphere. For instance, by comparing air pollution and occurrence of technical risks, we estimate the probabilities of contributing events. AND-gate: P(technical risks) = P(pipeline bursts) × P(industrial explosions) × P(collapsing buildings) = 0.21 × 0.15 × 0.1 =0.00315 OR-gate: P (air pollution) = P(too many industries releasing smog) + P(traffic and urban congestion) = 0.4 + 0.3 =0.7 This suggests that likelihood of air pollution to happen is more than the probability of technical risks occurring when combined. The government of China should now realize that the fault is air pollution that is contributing a lot to the national losses. 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks From the intensity and prevalence of certain risks in China, it is possible to conclude that air pollution, piracy and earthquakes and landslides should take greater priority in any intervention. China is one of the leading nations with high GDP growth of US$10.983 trillion but due to the significant numbers in the population, the allocation per person (GDP per capita) reduces to $6,830. This figure is low compared to GDP per capita of many developed countries. If 1% of the GDP was to be allocated to intervention plans for the above risks, then more likely the allocation will consider the given categories. The total amount of money allocated to the risks will be = 1/100 * US$10.983 trillion = US$109 billion The criteria for allocation will be; Environmental risks: Allocation - 40%. Timeline (May 2016 – June 2018). The rationale is that many of the risks that had high frequency/probability of occurrence and high impact were environmental risks. Such risks affect financial productivity of the nation, lead to reduction in efficiency and effectiveness of citizens and leads to strain in provision of healthcare. Specifically, air pollution will get higher portion of these funds. The allocation will be in the following ratio; air pollution (0.4), earthquakes (0.2), landslides (0.25), typhoons and floods (0.15) The distribution of funds for the environmental risks will be as shown in the graph below Figure 3: Allocation of funds for environmental risks From the figure above, air pollution will get a better share of US$17 billion followed by landslide allocation at US$10 billion. Earthquake allocation will be US$8 billion while Typhoons and floods will receive US$6 billion. These funds will go into investment in alternative sources of energy particularly solar and wind energy. The alternative source of power will help reduce pollution in the major cities like Xian, Shanghai and Beijing. The other set of funds will have to be used to build barriers and dikes in south China. Funds for the earthquakes will be invested in early warning systems and purchase of evacuation equipments. Similarly, funds for typhoons and floods will be used to build dikes, buy evacuation equipment and purchase land for resettlement of people living on dangerous slopes. Technical risks: Allocation 35%. Timeline (July 2016 – December 2018). Under technical risks are pipeline bursts, industrial explosions and collapsing buildings that were identified as the major risks. The possible allocation of these risks will be; pipeline bursts (0.2), industrial explosions (0.4) and collapsing buildings (0.4). The total allocation for the technical risks will be; 0.35 * $109 billion = $38billion The individual allocations of the funds to the risk are as shown in the pie chart below. Figure 2: Allocation of funds to technical risks From the figure above, 40 percent (US$38 billion) of the technical risk funds will be allocated to the collapsing buildings ($15billion), industrial explosions and fires ($15 billion) and pipeline bursts ($7.6billion). The funds will assist the ministry of civil affairs in China to create controls and monitoring systems for the country’s pipeline. It is also important to understand that collapsing buildings causes massive financial losses to the city and the country at large. The allocation of the buildings is to empower the civil society of engineers and local authorities in purchasing fire equipment and transport facilities to the scene of tragedy. Again, the funds will be used to fund controls and regulatory units who make sure that all the buildings comply to the basic construction code. Elsewhere, the funds for the industrial fires and explosions will be used to purchase firefighting equipment and better mining processes and systems to reduce mine explosions. Also, chemical storage facilities and other industries will have to get a share of funds to create safety awareness and also procure fire safety systems. Political risks: Allocation, 20%. Timeline (December 2016 – November 2019). The total allocation for political risks; piracy and cyber attacks is US$21billion. The specific allocation will be in the ratio of 2:3 for piracy and cyber attacks respectively. Cyber attacks will get an allocation of US$13billion while piracy will receive an allocation of US$8billion. The funds will be used to create formidable security systems to prevent hackers to getting classified databases and other government databases. More funds will be required into training personnel who will be involved in arresting and tracking online criminals. These funds will also be used to create a process of developing read only discs and data tools to prevent adaptation and violation of copyright laws. The courts will have to be empowered and the general public be made aware of threats of piracy. This will require running TV ads to reach majority of the population to know the dangers of piracy and infringement of copyrights. Social risks: Timeline (November 2016 – June 2017). The Avian influenza virus will get an allocation of 5 percent of the funds to the tune of $5.45 billion. The funds will be used to fund disease scientific studies in the national laboratories in China. Besides, the funds will also be used in the purchase of drugs and suitable medicine as well as creating awareness and other preventive measures against the disease. 1.4 Conclusion The study has identified risks based on four categories; technical, environmental, social, and political classification of risks. The risks identified are; typhoons and floods, earthquakes, cyber attacks, industrial explosions, Avian Influenza virus, collapsing buildings, piracy, landslides, pipeline bursts, and air pollution. The probabilities of these risks were underscored by assessing their probability of occurrence and the impact such negative events will have on China. The impacts of the risks were classified based on effect on health, welfare and life of humans and animals as well as environment and social infrastructure. Air pollution, piracy and earthquakes and landslides should take greater priority in any intervention. The risks found that air pollution of the major cities in China such as Xian, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing was a major risk that required urgent attention and greater allocation of funds. Moreover, it was found that air pollution is worsened by massive pollution from industries and traffic emissions on major city roads. References Chen, J. (2009). An analysis of piracy in China: the cause, reason and solution. https://www.hamilton.edu/documents/Jiong%20Chen%20paper.pdf. Chen, X.L., Zhou, Q., Ran, H. & Dong, R. (2012). Earthquake-triggered landslides in southwest China. Nat. Hazards Earth Systems Science, 12(2): 351–363, International Council of Science (2008). Science plan on hazards and disasters. Earthquakes, floods and landslides. http://www.icsu.org/asia-pacific/publications/science-planning-reports/science-plan-on-hazards-and-disasters/Earthquake-%20Floods%20-%20Landslides.pdf. International Federation of the Red Cross (2013, August 23) China: Floods and typhoons. Information bulletin, http://www.ifrc.org/docs/Appeals/13/CHNTC230813.pdf. Lindsay, J.R. (2014). The Impact of China on Cyber security. International Security, 39(3): 7-47. Kobayashi, Y. & Porter, J.W. (2012). Flood Risk Management in the People’s Republic of China. Asian Development Bank. http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29717/flood-risk-management-prc.pdf. Priest, E. (2008). The Future of Music and Film Piracy in China. Berkeley Technology Law Journal ,21(2):795-805. Quo-qing, X., Han-feng, H. & Zi-Yuan, D. (2014). City Gas Pipeline Burst Analysis Based on MapXtreme. http://www.ejge.com/2014/Ppr2014.786ma.pdf. Simonsen, H. & Perry, J. (1999). Risk identification, assessment and management in the mining and metallurgical industries. http://www.saimm.co.za/Journal/v099n06p321.pdf. Spade, J.M. (2012). China’s Cyber Power and America’s National Security. http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB424/docs/Cyber-072.pdf. United Nations (2008). Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/flood_guidelines.pdf. Wang, X. & Mauzerall, D.L. (2006). Evaluating impacts of air pollution in China on public health: Implications for future air pollution and energy policies. Atmospheric Environment, 40(2): 1706–1721. Zhang, L. (2012). A Chinese perspective on cyber war. International Review of the Red Cross. Volume 94 Number 886 Summer 2012. https://app.icrc.org/e-briefing/new-tech-modern-battlefield/media/documents/43.-A-Chinese-perspective-on-cyber-war.pdf. Zhang, X.L. & Liu, X.M. (2008). Learning from the Wenchuan earthquake: key problems in collapse analysis of structures. The 14 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering October 12-17, 2008, Beijing, China. http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/14_S31-009.PDF . Zhang, D., Liu, J. & Li, B. (2014). Tackling Air Pollution in China-What do We Learn from the Great Smog of 1950s in London. Sustainability, 6(1): 5322-5338. Zhang, J., Zhou, C., Xu, K. & Watanabe, M. (2002). Flood disaster monitoring and evaluation in China. Environmental Hazards, 4 (2): 33–43. Zhenzhao, S. (2015). The Avian Influenza Situation in China. http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/The%20Avian%20Influenza%20Situation%20In%20P.R.China.pdf. Zongzhi, W. & Xiaomei, W. (1996). Industrial fire and explosion hazard assessment method in China. http://www.iafss.org/publications/aofst/2/12/view/aofst_2-12.pdf. http://www.cnpc.com.cn/en/cs2012en/201407/3af694130bc643758d0652f6f1ba1b99/files/e11a7fde7e104d50b67be96748c0a9a2.pdf. Read More