Why did George W. Bush Win the 2004 Presidential Election - Case Study Example

Name Course University Date Why did George W. Bush win the 2004 Presidential Election? Introduction The different issues in the society can be considered to have a major influence in the life of every members of the society. One of the most important aspects is political leadership. This can be considered as the main reason for the need to present the rationale for one of the controversial political issues of the American history. The study is mainly to present possible conjectures and suppositions on the issue. In the United States, the practice of democracy can be considered as the most important issue. Election can be considered as the most important practice of the rights of the people. In a Presidential Election, there are different factors that are considered. To be able to present the importance of the governing factors in a Presidential Election, the main objective of the paper is to focus on the 2004 Elections facing the issues relating to the success of George W. Bush. This can be considered essential in the democracy that is the main blood of the American political system. But through the course of history, the practice of democracy is becoming a tough challenge to undertake. This can be attributed to different issues. The issues that are related to the state can be considered to hold power almost as influential as other essential issues such as the plans and programs of the government, etc. Due to the strength of such issues to affect the welfare of the political system, it is considered vital to focus on such factors. This can be attributed to the fact that the perception of the population and the image can greatly affect the future of the state. To be able to present and analytical view of the victory of George W. Bush, it is important to consider the view of the critics and the supporters of his presidency. In any social and political issue, it is inevitable to have both the groups that agree and supports the subject of the study while at the same time there are those that contradict the issue. In relation to the issue on the success of Bush, there are views of two sides, the groups that criticize the victory of Bush and the group that believes in him. The report attempts to present both issues and the points they made. The Different Views on the Victory Achieved by Bush In terms of the view of different groups on the victory of George W. Bush, there are opposing perspectives. This can be attributed to the fact that certain groups perceived that the victory is unprecedented while other groups view that the result can be questionable. Through history of the American society, parties had been recognized, although informally sanctioned because not mentioned in the constitution. But through the development of the nation and the state, the parties specifically the Republicans and the Federalists can be considered as the most significant and recognizable part of the election, though local or national in nature. Even in the 2004 election the trend in the support received by the parties wherein the Presidential candidates belong created the controversies of the said election (Scott Thomas, 1987). The trend in the 2004 presidential election is more than the rivalry of the parties the real question that can be considered of more urgently in search of an answer is the how and the why of the victory of George W. Bush. The Critics In terms of the scenario presented by the critics of the results of the 2004 Presidential Election, the notable question is that - how could an unprecedented occurrence of such victory can be possible without even any indication in relation to the results of the forecasts based on the 2000 election votes, undertaken prior to the 2004 Presidential Election. The main stream of the thought of the critics then is that the election has been stolen. But is stealing votes possible? The answer remains unseen but the main line of inquiry is in relation to the fact that the use of machines for voting is continuously being criticized in view of the fact that votes has the highest possibility of being tampered aside from the fact that such process can be considered as against the democracy that the American society continuously uphold (Landes, 2005). One of the radical expression of the members of the critics is the possibility of the stealing of vote through the use of the voting machines. In relation to this view, there are different scenarios that had been noted. One is through the control of the manufacturers of the voting machines that are being used in the Presidential Elections. Due to the fact that voting by machines can be very questionable due to the fact that no ballots are created but simply digital images there are considered more rooms for conspiracy and fraud if there is access to the programs and even to the manufacturers (Collins, 2007a). Another scenario is the control over the supervision of the election returns. During the 2004 Presidential Election, George W. Bush is the incumbent which can be equated to having the benefits of popularity and greater influence. The access to influence can be tapped if he wanted to. Even the legislation of the policies in states wherein the President is popular can be undertaken while increasing popularity in areas of lower popularity (Collins, 2007b). In terms of the projections of the election returns, the opponents have more chances to achieve victory, specifically Al Gore. Upon the study of the possible distribution of votes a significant race between the candidates are expected. Prior to the 2004 election, Bush had been loosing votes in relation to the rural areas. This can be considered as a threat since the said areas, specifically the small towns, are considered as the base of the citizen. This can be attributed to the fact that their votes cannot be easily deflected (Lockerbie, 2004). Due to the event in 2004 Elections, it was also considered that the models for the study of the voting behavior have a probability of being obsolete. This can be attributed to the fact that it wasn’t able to predict the occurrences in the latest elections. Based on the critics, the problem lies not on the model for prediction but on the irregularities in the occurrences in the 2004 Presidential Election. These scenarios can only be considered as contentions, assumptions and can even be prejudice but the fact that certain groups of the American population holds these notions can be considered alarming to the government and the leadership. Although the American people lack the passion to raise questions directly, they consider the 2004 Elections as one unprecedented and in different perspective highly doubtful. The doubt that the people hold causing different issues to rise can be considered as an important issue to consider. The Non-Critics In the issue regarding the victory of George W. Bush in the 2004 Presidential Elections, there are two opposing forces. These include the critics and the non-critics. Upon focusing on the non-critics, an observation can be achieved. This is the fact that they cannot be perceived as supporters but group that are trying to present objective explanations to the occurrences in the 2004 Presidential Election. In a certain perspective some groups present logical explanations to the issues presented by the critics. This can be considered as another view that is needed to be given importance. That although statistical data conflicts with the projection, it was still possible, thus, referred to as unprecedented. In relation to the parties, it was considered as a tight fight against the contending groups. It was even observed favorable against the party where Bush belongs. This can be considered as the main reason for the doubt and question being presented by the opposing groups (Nardulli, 2004). The doubt of the public is based on the fact that every projections and trends were contradicted by the results of the election. But the non-critics are on the view that the occurrence can be possible though unprecedented event such as what has occurred in the said election. The projections of the 2004 Presidential Election as based on the results of the 2000 election. This can be attributed to the extrapolation and estimated of the possible number of votes on the basis of the strengths of the campaign before the election. But compared to the view of the groups that criticize the victory of George W. Bush, the model for the extrapolation and the prediction of the election results is the main issue being targeted by the non-critics. This is instead of the issue related to the election process (Lockerbie, 2004). Based on the view of the non-critics that can be considered to disregard the issues related to the unprecedented occurrences in the 2004 Presidential Elections, since based on the reaction of the majority of the population, the expected result is different from the final outcome. Although this is the case, it is still possible, thus, doable. In certain cases even the capability and feasibility of the projection equation and computation was questioned. It can be considered that the non-critics commonly focus on the technicalities such as the models used in the study of the forecasting of the votes instead of determining the probability that there had been control of the votes that made the event occur without conforming to the trends and patterns, that throughout he history occurs. In the comparative study of models that can predict the behavior of the votes in the 2004 election, it was determined that the Fiscal Model which is commonly used failed to predict the actual results of the election. In terms of computation of the trends on the basis of the Campbell model, the actual results were achieved. This presents the notion that can answer the doubts of the people regarding the occurrences in the said election (Cuzan and Bundrick, 2005). The model was tested through controlled situations to be able to determine the application of the theoretical aspect. The study was undertaken through the projection of the results of the election based on the model in relation to randomly chosen election results theory the history. The results showed the trend achieved in the 2004 Presidential Elections (Cuzan and Bundrick, 2005). The models of forecasting election outcomes can then be considered to have improved through the course of history (Campbell, 2004). Opposing the points presented by the critics, the methods and the reasons that are proposed to have made the victory possible are presented to be related to the structured plan of the campaign. Looking through history toward the event that transpired the success of George W. Bush, it is still considered as barely probable and to some even impossible. One of the points given in the victory of George W. Bush is the extraordinary campaign movement and action. The applied methods and techniques enable the achievement of glory. This can be attributed to the fact that the group was able to act upon the ensuing danger prior to its occurrence (Cook, 2004). The action of the Bush group was able to achieve an unprecedented result. The Republican over the Democratic National Committee was the rank. When it comes to the turn out, it can be described that the Bush team was able to penetrate the voters and gain support while not letting it out in the open. When compared to the opponents such as Kerry and Al Gore that gained superficial popularity. The 2004 Presidential Election then is about the application of strategic actions more than popularity. Thus, it came out as a surprise to the public. The conservative method is over the expressed popularity. The data presented in relation to the non- critics can present objectively the issues that are being considered by both parties. Certain groups a view that there is less and less reason to question the result of the said election on the basis that the term is being used up, but the most important objective is to be able to fairly and objectively present opposing sides. Analysis Based on the study that was undertaken, the two opposing sides of the issue on the victory of George W. Bush in the 2004 Presidential Elections are presented. There are different observations that had been perceived. One is that the opposing group that criticized the success of Bush expressed that the votes were manipulated. This is based on the trends and polls undertaken, greatly pattered to the results of the 2000 Elections wherein Bush won. The results they consider are improbable because it never happened before. Another argument is the fact that increased in vote of Bush occurred wherein there are decrease in the votes of other candidates that can be attested to many references. In this regard, manipulation of voting machine results can be considered as a probable scenario to consider. Although this the case, the Bush supporters can only consider a wise campaign strategy to be the answer to the query on the improbability of the victory of Bush in the 2004 Presidential Election. The main method that can be considered as a method used by the opponents with the highest probability is to present the candidate as the winner in the exit polls. Due to the said scenario, the expectation of the people will be set based on the projected results. It can then be some sort of brainwashing. People will objectively perceive irregularities in the election as a result. As a result of the query on why George W. Bush won the 2004 Presidential Election – it can be either of the propositions. But is it not too late to be discussing such issues. The focus of the public is needed to be given to the achievement and the shortcomings of the present leadership to be able to be more vigilant in making a choice for the subsequent polls, an important lesson to learn. Also to be able to prevent issues on the legality of the election results, methods and policies applied for the commencement of the election process are needed to be improved. Counterchecking of machine results are also needed to be made if that remains to be the only issue questionable in the election process. Conclusion Based on the notions gathered regarding the reasons for the success of George W. Bush, it can be considered that there are varying opinions, as represented by the critics and the non critics. Although some of the presented notions can be considered as mere speculation, these can still be considered as a representation of the opinions of the masses. Although there are varying views on the issue, to be able to achieve an analytical answer to the query, it is important to consider one of the most important scenarios and that is George W. Bush won the electorate. Through the course of the study, the focus is to be able to present a substantial effort on the assessment and determination of the real occurrences on the 2004 Presidential Election. The query on why George W. Bush won is always answered by the main criteria that can be considered important to the people and thus was used during the campaign. These are the capability to answer the problems in terrorism, the economy and the issues on moral values. Although there are doubts on the capability of bush to be able to get more votes, he was able to tap the traditional voters which comprise a larger number due to the fact that he has the capability to answer problems in terrorism. Another main reason that was considered and can be related to the increased votes of President Bush in the traditional areas are presented by the different references is the fact that such places are composed of women voters. This can be related to the fact that Bush worked on the continuous increase of trust of the population that he can provide safety and security event through the period of havoc. In conclusion, George W. Bush won on the basis that terrorism is the main priority of the incumbent Bush Administration and also became the foundation of the vote of the more traditional population. Also, women that can be considered as the more traditional members of the population and at the same time the more in need for protection for themselves and their families. For these reasons then, George W. Bush won the 2004 election. Reference Abramowitz, A. I. (2004). When Good Forecasts Go Bad: The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election. 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PS: Political Science & Politics (2006), p. 443-6. Scott Thomas, G. (1987). The Pursuit of the White House: A Handbook of Presidential Election Statistics and History. New Yok: Greenwood Press. Read More