National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies - Case Study Example

NATIONAL RISK REGISTER OF CIVIL EMERGENCIES The focus of this paper is to produce a critical analysis of the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. The register is a document in which the UK government records all the results of the assessment of risk emergencies in the UK. This register is important to the government and the public as it contains important information about the likelihood of occurrence of risks and emergencies in the UK (Kapucu & Zerdem 2011, 45). From a general analysis, the risk register was well researched except for a few areas in which it was faulty. This paper presents a critical analysis of the National Risk Register. Of interest in the paper is the risks assessed in the register, risk qualification and quantification, main results from the assessment and the difference in practice in response to the report. RISK QUALIFICATION, QUANTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT. The National Risk Register of emergencies contains the risks assessed and the results obtained. There are several risks identified as having a high possibility of occurring in the UK. Disease pandemics such as influenza top the list which has other risks such as coastal flooding, severe volcanic eruptions, catastrophic terrorist attacks, severe space weather and severe volcanic eruptions (Cabinet Office 2010). Based on this report, other risks with a high probability of occurrence in the UK are severe weather, major industrial accidents, animal diseases, transport accidents, disruptive industrial action, cyber security, unconventional attacks, public disorder and attacks on infrastructure and public places. A wide range of risks was assessed for the sake of the National. Register. These two methods are applied on risks that have natural occurrence and for those that occur by accident. In order to arrive at the likelihood of occurrence for various risks, the researchers combined expert judgment, historical analysis and numerical modeling in their assessment (Cabinet Office 2010). The possibility of risks such as terrorist attacks taking place in the UK was assessed with much subjectivity. Those doing the assessment simply sought the balance between the readiness of terrorists to attack and the assessed ability they have to do that and how vulnerable their victims may be. This assessment takes an objective form as it is done at the current time and within the next 5 years. Risk qualification and quantification was based on the number of dead people as a result of a particular risk emergency. Included in the process were the diseases and injuries affecting people because of the occurrence of the emergency (Cabinet Office 2010).Another factor considered for the assessment was the social disruption levels witnessed in the lives of the victims of a risk emergency. MAIN RESULTS According to the National Risk Register of Emergencies people in the United Kingdom could suffer from both natural and manmade risks. The main results in the report are based on the risks of disease pandemics, volcanic hazards, severe space weather, terrorist attacks and coastal floods (Wisner 2004, 350). In the National Register, risk number one is human disease which is represented by influenza pandemic. The report has some examples on diseases that are believed to be new and could affect the UK negatively. The report does not go all the way to provide the reader with the names of the rest of the diseases cited as being harmful to people in the UK. This is a shortcoming since giving a partial list leaves people with questions. For the report to be complete, it could have given the full list of the so called newly found diseases. What a reader can understand from the partial list id that the ones mentioned are the ones with a high likelihood of occurrence and those that are not on the list have a lower possibility of occurrence in the UK. This may not be true since the unmentioned diseases could have an even higher change of affecting people in the UK (Kapucu & Zerdem 2011, 52). A strong point in the report is where it provides information on what the government is doing to handle the outcome of risk emergencies. The main results indicate that most people in the UK have no immunity against pandemic influenza which is caused by new influenza virus. The results show that there is an agreement among experts that another influenza pandemic could occur in the UK. However the report indicates that it was not possible for experts to forecast when this pandemic will occur or the impact it will cause. This is confession may not be acceptable to the readers because it can make them lose their confidence in the report. The report was supposed to give some assurance to the public of all the details surrounding a possible pandemic. This is therefore a shortcoming because the report should give the results of the assessment with the all the details that the public would like to have. The report only cites the likelihood of the pandemic occurring but does not give any assurance. The reader may find it hard to believe in the rest of the results because the report only says it is likely to occur (Wisner 2004, 349). Experts used historical information, modeling and scientific information to arrive at some suggestions. It says many people in the world could be infected and about 500,000 people in the UK could get symptoms and organizations could be affected by the pandemic. These predictions however sound as general estimations because they do not give specific information for example on the magnitude of the effects organizations can suffer. Based on the results of this report, new infectious diseases cannot occur in the UK. This possibility can only be true if the disease originates from outside of the UK. However, the report does not show why the UK is so unique that a new disease cannot originate from there. It fails to support this claim by giving the public a strong assurance that can back the statements made. Coastal flooding is cited in the report as a risk with a likelihood of happening in the UK (Wisner 2004). The report cites climate change as the most possible cause of potential floods in the United Kingdom. Flooding can occur in the UK and it is among the ‘big risks’ whose likelihood of occurrence in higher than the others. Coastal floods, floods from rainfall and floods from rivers could hit the UK (Cabinet Office 2010). If reservoirs and dams fail, then floods could also arise. The vastness of the UK requires that a report of this importance provide the particular areas that can be hit by floods and the magnitude of the floods and their impact. The report does not provide information about the areas in the UK that are at risk because of flooding. DIFFERENCES IN PRACTICE The government has responded in various ways to the results of the risk assessment as presented in the National Risk Register. As a result, so many measures are already underway to prepare the UK for a risk emergency occurrence. However, for purposes of this report, those measures that concern the main risks will be featured. In order to prepare the UK for risk emergencies, the government has several changes that are already underway in various sectors (Cabinet Office 2010). As far as disease pandemics are concerned, the UK government has started collaborations with international partners that can help in putting in place research, detection processes and prevention measures of various disease pandemics. It also seeks to reduce the spread of the pandemics and their impacts. A specific step the government is taking is to make plans to have anti-virals stocked in quantities that can treat 50 percent of people in the UK. The government is also seeking to have advance purchase agreements that will help it have vaccines supplied to the UK. Through the flood risk management program the government is working on the reduction of the likelihood of floods occurring. Better institutional plans for managing surface water are under implementation. Measures are also underway to reduce risk in places where flooding is common. Devolving of floods in Scotland is complete and other relevant activities are being done (Cabinet Office 2010).Coming to volcanic eruptions, the International Civil Aviation started the International Volcano Watch that deals with the coordination and dissemination of information on any volcanic ash from an eruption that could have negative environmental impacts. There is good coordination and cooperation between the National Grid, the Department of Energy and the players in the sector of energy. These entities are seeking to define what would be the impact of different risks on assets, networks and electricity (Cabinet Office 2010). The report is comprehensive for the bigger part of it. There are several things mentioned under government efforts to mitigate risks and emergencies. However the report fails to recommend the things that should be done to have a better UK in terms of risk management. Apart from the few shortcomings mentioned in the report such as the lack of specification, the report is insightful Conclusion The focus of this paper was to present a critical analysis of the National Risk Register on Emergencies. Various factors were combined to aid in the process of assessment, quantification and qualification of risks. Expert advice, historical analysis and numerical modeling data were all used in the assessment. Subjectivity was employed in assessing risks such as terrorist attacks because a balance between variables was necessary. Main results show that there is a likelihood of risks occurring in the UK. Among these risks are pandemic influenza, terrorist attacks, coastal flooding, severe space weather and volcanic eruptions. There are several measures put in place by government and other institutions in response to the report of the risk assessment. The report is comprehensive on its presentation of the assessment and prediction of the likelihood of risk occurrence. However, some areas in the report do not give satisfactory assurance of the likelihood or no likelihood of risk occurrence. The specific places where risks may occur are lacking and the measures the government is taking to curb risk impacts are not fully covered. Government in cooperation with other institutions is working hard to implement measures that will see the UK handle risk emergencies effectively. An example is the recommendations it is adopting from the Pitt Review about the summer 2007 floods in order to lessen the impact of floods in the future. Bibliography Cabinet Office 2010. National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. Retrieved on 22 Nov. 2012 from http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/reports/national_risk_register.aspx Kapucu, N. & Zerdem, A. 2011. Managing Emergencies and Crises. Jones and Bartlett. Pg 52. Wisner B. 2004. At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples’ Vulnerability and Disasters. Routledge. 349 Read More