Railway Project in Zambia - Assignment Example

Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Table of Contents ITP-A 4 Abstract 4 Introduction 4 A1.1 Average Rainfall 6 TABLE 1: Average monthly rainfall in Kasama 6 CHART 1: Graphical Representation of monthly average rainfall in Kasama 7 Explanation 7 A1.2 Average Rainfall 8 Interpretation 9 A2.1 Rainy Days 10 TABLE 2: Rainy Days in Kasama 10 CHART 2: Graphical Representation of average rain days in Kasama. 11 Explanation 11 A2.2 Rainy Days 12 Explanation 12 A3.1 Temperature 12 TABLE 3: SUMMARY OF TEMPERATURE RANGES IN KASAMA 12 CHART 3: RELATION BETWEEN LOW, AVERAGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN KASAMA 13 Explanation 13 A3.2 & A3.3 Relation between Average Minimum and Average Maximum Temperature 14 Correlation Analysis 14 Hypothesis testing: Regression Analysis 15 CHART 4: Scatter chart to show Relationship between Minimum and Maximum Temperatures 15 Explanation 16 A4: Implications for the Project Management Plan 16 ITP-B 17 INTRODUCTION 17 FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT THE PROJECT IN KASAMA 17 GENERIC FACTORS 17 SPATIAL FACTORS 19 CIVIL AND STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING FACTORS 20 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING FACTORS 21 ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING FACTORS 22 References 24 ITP-A Abstract The construction of major engineering structures requires keen checks on the various factors that may affect the construction process. These factors range from one extreme to the other. The availability of the land for the project is usually a major concern. Other concerns include human induced ones like culture, security and the perception of the general public. Natural factors like temperature variation, land topography and intensity of rainfall can also significantly affect the success of a project. These natural variations are however not as extreme considering they just occur within a specific period of the calendar year. This article bring to the fore the various variations of rainfall and temperatures and the way they can impact on the success of the project. Introduction The town of Kasama is a busy town in the Northern sides of Zambia. It is found 10°12’S and 31°10’E, approximately 800 kilometers from the capital city of Lusaka. It has an elevation of 1400 meters above sea level. It acts as the regional Capital of the Northern Province. The town has several amenities and services including an airport. The town is developing rapidly as evidenced by the residential areas and several other structures being constructed. The transport and communication network has also improved significantly with all three mobile operators operating there and a recent launch of a community radio station (Zambia-advisor, 2015). A railway line (TAZARA), which runs all the way from the Port of Dar-es-Salaam Tanzania through Kasama to KapiriMposhi in Central Zambia, provides logistics solutions to this town. There are also other means of transport for getting in and out of Kasama (Zambia-advisor, 2015). Kasama is home to a variety of Zambian local ethnic groups although Bemba is the most widely spoken language. It is therefore likely for one to come across the culture of the people of Bemba to be widely practiced. This does not mean other cultures have been overshadowed. In fact, Kasama is one place where the various cultures of the people of Zambia exist side by side. Kasama is thus one of the most linguistically diverse regions in Zambia (Tripadvisor, 2016). Residential areas in Kasama vary significantly from one extreme to the other. Some residential areas are have very good planning while others are semi-planned or structures lack any meaningful planning at all. Residential areas like TAZARA, new town, and central town are well planned with structures constructed in a certain order. Other areas like Kambotole, Chisanga and Katongo lack the least of plans (Zambian, 2012). There are also some modern houses for the people who are well off and the middle class. On the other end, there are shanty neighborhoods and other cheap houses within the town. Accommodation is however well catered for with hotels ranging from one star to five star hotels and lodgings. The people of Kasama are mostly earning their living from the informal sector. Apart from a few residents employed in the formal sector, most of the residents work in the informal sector with some working as vendors, others operating small shops and other small businesses. Other residents engage in small scale farming to make ends meet (Zambia-advisor, 2015). A1.1 Average Rainfall The average amount of rainfall received every month for Kasama is as summarized in Table 1and Chart 1 below: TABLE 1: Average monthly rainfall in Kasama KASAMA TOWN, NORTHERN REGION Month Rain Days Ave Rainfall 1 22 18.5 2 16 12.5625 3 16 10.25 4 15 12.133 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 10 1 1 11 9 13.56 12 14 20.21 CHART 1: Graphical Representation of monthly average rainfall in Kasama Explanation Kasama has recorded an average of 88.21 millimeters of rainfall per month or 1058.52 millimeters of rainfall per year. The wettest months are between January and April, and November and December, which record an average of 88.96 millimeters of precipitation, is recorded. The driest months are between May and September which on record an average of 0.1 millimeters of rainfall. A1.2 Average Rainfall Hypothesis Testing: t-Test t= 0.413 degrees of freedom = 11 The probability of this result, assuming the null hypothesis, is 0.687 Calculations are as follows: Dataset 1(Rainy Days): Number of items= 12 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 9.00, 14.0, 15.0, 16.0, 16.0, 22.0 Mean = 7.75 95% confidence interval for Mean: 2.406 thru 13.09 Standard Deviation = 8.41 Hi = 22.0 Low = 0.00 Median = 5.00 Average Absolute Deviation from Median = 7.58 Dataset 2(Average Rainfall): Number of items= 12 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 10.2, 12.1, 12.6, 13.6, 18.5, 20.2 Mean = 7.35 95% confidence interval for Mean: 2.293 thru 12.41 Standard Deviation = 7.96 Hi = 20.2 Low = 0.00 Median = 5.62 Average Absolute Deviation from Median = 7.18 Dataset 1-2: Number of items= 12 -6.21, -4.56, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 2.87, 3.44, 3.50, 5.75, Mean = 0.399 95% confidence interval for Mean: -1.724 thru 2.522 Standard Deviation = 3.34 Hi = 5.75 Low = -6.21 Median = 0.00 Average Absolute Deviation from Median = 2.19 Interpretation The value for the null hypothesis is relatively low. This means that the difference between the analyzed data is low. Thus the probability of the data being related is quite high. The number of rainy days can therefore be deduced from the collected data above. A2.1 Rainy Days The numbers of rainy days in Kasama are summarized in Table 2 and Chart 2 below: TABLE 2: Rainy Days in Kasama RAINY DAYS IN KASAMA Month Rain Days 1 22 2 16 3 16 4 15 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 10 1 11 9 12 14 CHART 2: Graphical Representation of average rain days in Kasama. Explanation From the table and the chart above, we can confidently conclude that the month of December through to the month of January are the wettest in a calendar year with an average of 17 rainy days a month. On the other hand, the months of May through to October are the dries recording as low as 0.1 millimeters. Some days do not rain altogether. A2.2 Rainy Days Hypothesis Testing: Chi Square Test 12 data/expectation pairs (x,E): ( 22.0 , 11.20 ); ( 16.0 , 9.600 ); ( 16.0 , 9.200 ); ( 15.0 , 3.600 ); ( 0.00 , 0.4000 ); ( 0.00 , 0.1000 ); ( 0.00 , 0.1000 ); ( 0.00 , 0.1000 ); ( 0.00 , 0.1000 ); ( 1.00 , 0.9000 ); ( 9.00 , 6.200 ); ( 14.0 , 11.60 ); Chi-square = 58.4 degrees of freedom = 11 probability = 0.000 Explanation From the results above, we can confidently conclude that the number of rainy days in Kasama do not significantly vary from the expected or actual number of rainy days. A3.1 Temperature The temperature range experienced in Kasama is summarized in Table 3 and Chart 3 below: TABLE 3: SUMMARY OF TEMPERATURE RANGES IN KASAMA KASAMA TOWN, NORTHERN REGION Month Ave. Temp Max Temp Min Temp 1 22 26 18 2 22.5 27 18 3 22 26 18 4 21 25 17 5 19 23 15 6 18 23 13 7 17.5 22 13 8 18 23 13 9 20.5 26 15 10 22 27 17 11 23 28 18 12 22.5 27 18 CHART 3: RELATION BETWEEN LOW, AVERAGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN KASAMA Explanation The data above give an indication of significant temperature variation in the various months of the year. The temperatures are relatively high during the rainy season in Kasama. These can be seen as the months of October through to April. The months between May and September are considered to be the cold months. Temperatures in Kasama are relatively high during the day as compared to the nights. The nights generally record lower temperatures (Climatemps, 2012). A3.2 & A3.3 Relation between Average Minimum and Average Maximum Temperature The maximum average temperature in Kasama is around 26°C, while the average minimum temperature is around 16°C. This records a difference of an average of 10°C which is a significant temperature difference on the scale. The high temperatures are usually experienced during the day. This means that most of the days in Kasama are generally sunny with clear skies (Accuweather, 2016). The nights on the other hand register relatively low temperatures. This can be attributed to the fact that clear skies during the night lets the heat absorbed during the sunny days is rapidly lost to the atmosphere through the clear skies. Correlation Analysis The correlation between the two set of temperature variables can be well analyzed by computing the correlation coefficient of the two variables. The can be done using the formula: The correlation coefficient of the data is thus: r = 0.8796 While the value of r² = 0.7736 This shows that the values of the average minimum and average maximum temperature variations are 77% correlated. Hypothesis testing: Regression Analysis The regression analysis of minimum and maximum temperature is as shown in Chart 4 below: CHART 4: Scatter chart to show Relationship between Minimum and Maximum Temperatures Explanation The chart above clearly shows the linear relation between the two temperature ranges. When temperatures are high, (maximum average temperature) the minimum average temperatures increase (Climatemps, 2012). The minimum average temperatures decrease when the maximum average temperature comes down. A4: Implications for the Project Management Plan The weather patterns of Kasama are generally quite predictable and not erratic. It is correct to conclude that heavy rains are expected to fall between the months of October through to May. This is particularly of interest considering the kind of projects to be carried out in this area. Rains are known to interfere with civil structures like the laying of foundation structure. It would be unsuitable to go ahead and carry out the projects in these months. Those tasked with implementation of the project need to carry out this project within the months of June and September. Although the rains are significantly scarce at these times, the temperatures should be of great interest. These are the months when day temperatures are high while night temperatures are low. The scorching heat of the day requires special attire and equipment to counter the effect of the heat. ITP-B INTRODUCTION The success of any major project depends on the site or location of the project itself. The location of a project comes with it several factors which may slow down the progress of the project or hinder it altogether. The project in hand specifically is a major one and adequate knowledge of the location of its implementation is of ultimate importance. In this paper, effort has been applied to identify the generic factors, spatial factors, civil and structural engineering factors, mechanical engineering factor and electrical engineering factors that may affect the success of the project at hand. This study is focused on the town of Kasama. FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT THE PROJECT IN KASAMA GENERIC FACTORS Climate Kasama town is located over 800 kilometers from the capital city of Lusaka. The town is located on a geographical setting of plateau with an elevation of 1400 meters above sea level. The climatic conditions of Kasama are not too extreme (ranging between an average of 26°C on the high and 16°C on the low). The temperatures vary significantly during the rainy season and the dry season. These seasons are experienced between the months of May to October for the dry season and September to April fro the wet season. These factors however do not impact negatively on the project as the dry period is enough for the project to be carried to completion. Traffic and transit The location of Kasama along the Great North road makes it the regional transportation hub. The fact that a major railway line (TAZARA) passes through it adds to the ease of getting into and out of Kasama. The railway line serves as a means of transport for both people and cargo. The line runs from the port of Dar-es-Salaam in the neighboring country of Tanzania to the Central town of Kapirimposhi in Zambia. The transport sector is also boosted by the recent construction of an airstrip. Traffic in Kasama is never a problem in Kasama. Community Kasama town is a home to a diverse cross-section of ethnic groups. This notwithstanding, the most spoken language is Bemba. The people of Kasama have however managed to live side by side in peace and harmony. During the study period, there was no encounter of anything associated with any of the communities as a shrine or a place of worship that would interfere with the project Economic activities The residents of Kasama town are majorly small scale business people with few running major business entities. They could be seen every morning moving to their places of work, some working as vendors while others run small scale retail shops. This is specifically important as the laborers who would work in the implementation of the project would be easily available. In the census carried out in the year 2000, Kasama had residents totaling 179,000 people SPATIAL FACTORS Availability of land Kasama is the largest of the seven districts of the Northern Province. The larger Northern Province occupies a massive 147,280 square kilometers of land. Social amenities and infrastructural development occupy only a small portion of this land. Land therefore will not be a hindering factor on the project (Zambia-advisor, 2015). Surrounding land use The land in the district of Kasama is barely used for meaningful farming as the people only engage in small scale subsistence farming. The land is therefore not much exploited for commercial activities (Fao.org). Wetlands The District of Kasama hardly has any river passing through it and thus the terrain is mostly covered in bushy fields which occasionally form seasonal lagoons and swamps along the valleys (Dalal-Clayton, 1985). Delicate ecology There are no major wildlife areas or conservation centers in Kasama. The main ecological site is found in the neighboring Mpika and Chilubi districts. CIVIL AND STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING FACTORS Utility Kasama district is relatively remote. A few years ago, it was absolutely impossible to make a call within the vicinity of Kasama. This however changed with the three major mobile service providers, CellZ, MTN and Airtel making their mark in the town (Site Selection). Topography Kasama is located in the Northern Province of Zambia. This area is categorically elevated and is covered majorly by small hills and valleys. The topography is quite complicated and this is likely to interfere with the project as these features make it hard to put up meaningful structures. Soil During and after the rainy season, most areas of Kasama are covered by seasonally wet or permanently wet grass valleys or seepage zones on slopes. These are usually referred to as dambos (Dalal-Clayton, 1985). The permanently and non permanently wet grassy valleys exhibit a catenary sequence of soils that are well drained on the upper slopes and quite poorly drained in the lower areas. This makes the soil to be generally sandy on the areas with dambos and clay in areas of the floodplains (Dalal-Clayton, 1985). Geology The district is generally made up of small hills and valleys all through the terrain. The hilly pattern of Kasama makes it quite difficult to carry out major structural developments in the area. This can be seen by the few number of roads which are passable during the rainy season. In fact, rainy season brings with it the challenge of transport in and out of Kasama, making railway transport the preferred mode of transportation (Huckabay, 1986). MECHANICAL ENGINEERING FACTORS Soil The nature of the soil as described in the previous section is important to consider as some of the structure to be constructed would require the excavation of land. The type of soil in Kasama requires digging of deep foundation for the structures. Geology The geology of Kasama is of importance as the presence of a hilly outline will mean the use of more sophisticated machines to break down the rocky areas. This would mean more time installing the foundation and thus the project would take longer to complete and at a higher cost. Delicate ecology Kasama does not have much in the flora and fauna except for the Chishimba falls which act as the home to a few aquatic animals including water birds. The falls is however away from Kasama town and its existence would not be affected whatsoever by the project at hand (Zambia-advisor, 2015). Wetlands Wetlands do exist in Kasama especially during and shortly after the rainy season. If construction was to be commenced during the dry season, not much will be needed to prepare the land for construction as compared to if the construction was to be done during the wet season. Such a situation would necessitate the use of water pumps to pump the collected water out of the dambos (International Rice Institute, 1985). ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING FACTORS Major energy source The major energy source in Zambia in whole is hydroelectricity contributing up to 10% of the entire energy consumed in the country. This energy is generated from its four major generating plants. The power is supplied to Kasama through cables into households. The other major energy source is petroleum contributing to 9% of total energy consumed (Zambia Energy Sector Profile, 2014). Energy requirements (Capacity) The energy requirement of Kasama is relatively low, considering the few number of large entities in the area. Unless the energy requirement rises significantly during the process of construction, the available energy supply should be enough to fuel the project (Zambia Energy Sector Profile, 2014). Renewable energy source The other sources of renewable energy include wind, solar and geothermal energy. The geothermal potential is good with the government estimating a total of 80 hot springs having the capacity to generate electricity. None of these however exist in Kasama. There is an average of 3000 hours of sunshine per year in Kasama. This is a potential source of energy waiting to be harnessed. The government of Zambia has however ruled out the use of wind to generate power owing to the low wind speed averaging 2.5 meters per second (Zambia Energy Sector Profile, 2014). References 1. Dalal-Clayton, D. (1980). Investigations into the nature and distribution of sand veldt soils of the Northern Province of Zambia with observations on their land use potential. Department of Agriculture, Lusaka, Zambia. 2. International Rice Research Institute. (1985). Wetland soils: characterization, classification and utilization. Manila, Philippines. 3. Huckabay, J. (1986). A definition of dambos. Zambia Geographical Journal 36. Geographical Association. Zambia. 4. Zambia Development Agency, (2014). Zambia Energy Sector Profile. Lusaka 5. Zambia-advisor, (2015). Kasama Town. [Online] Available at: http://www.zambia-advisor.com/kasama-town.html [Accessed 20 Aug. 2016] 6. Tripadvisor, (2015). Kasama, Zambia. [Online] Available at: https://www.tripadvisor.com/Tourism-g7217922-Kasama_Northern_Province-Vacations.html [Accessed 20 Aug. 2016] 7. Zambian, (2012). Kasama News Briefs. [Online] Available at: http://www.zambian.com/news/towns-cities-news/html/kasama-zambia-news-online.html [Accessed 21 Aug. 2016] 8. Accuweather.com, (2016). Weather for Kasama, Zambia. [Online] Available at: http://www.accuweather.com/en/zm/kasama/355505/weather-forecast/355505 [Accessed 22 Aug, 2016] 9. Climatemps, (2012). Rainfall/Precipitation in Kasama, Zambia. [Online] Available at: http://www.kasama.climatemps.com/precipitation.php [Accessed 22 Aug. 2016] Read More