National Risk Register for India - Assignment Example

National Risk Register for India Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Table of contents 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Risk identification 5 Table 1: Classification of probability 6 Table 2: Classification of Impact 6 Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix 8 Table 3: Background of risks in India 9 Table 4: Risk matrix for India 12 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 16 Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting India 16 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks 18 1.4 Conclusion 19 The Government of India, (2016). Environment Protection, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate change obtained from http://envfor.nic.in/division/environment-protection 22 List of figures 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Risk identification 5 Table 1: Classification of probability 6 Table 2: Classification of Impact 6 Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix 8 Table 3: Background of risks in India 9 Table 4: Risk matrix for India 12 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 16 Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting India 16 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks 18 1.4 Conclusion 19 The Government of India, (2016). Environment Protection, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate change obtained from http://envfor.nic.in/division/environment-protection 22 Figure 3: Allocation of funds for environmental risk….……………………………………………….…………… 18 List of tables 1.0 Introduction 5 1.1 Risk identification 5 Table 1: Classification of probability 6 Table 2: Classification of Impact 6 Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix 8 Table 3: Background of risks in India 9 Table 4: Risk matrix for India 12 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 16 Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting India 16 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks 18 1.4 Conclusion 19 The Government of India, (2016). Environment Protection, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate change obtained from http://envfor.nic.in/division/environment-protection 22 1.0 Introduction India has the second largest population in the world with a population of over 1.2 billion people. It has a GDP worth US$2.067 trillion according the report in 20141. India has a wealth of wetland with unique and diverse habitats which provide ecological goods and services which affect society, economy and environment; however, they are under stress because of rapid agricultural intensification, urbanization and industrialization. Indian government is investing in disaster management in order to minimize harmful effects on the society, environment and economy. 1.1 Risk identification Identifying risks is a process of describing, recognizing and finding risks. It is the first step in risk analysis and management process followed by risk impact. Since hazards and threats vary in their impact and likelihood; the most effective approach to manage them is to identify them (Verschuuren, 2013). This study identifies hazards and potential risks to the environment and the people of India based on fatalities and economic losses. The risks are identified based on their effects on the human life, the environment, the economy, political stability and technical effects. The top most risk that would be put into priority by the government of India include corruption and frauds, droughts, floods, earthquakes, cyclones, tsunami, epidemics, landslide, civil conflicts and forest fires. Hazards and threats vary in their impact and likelihood, thus an effective approach for India to manage the risks is to identify, assess and monitor them. In order to exhaustively identify hazards and threats in India, they were put into four categories. While the people and the environment are exposed to different levels of vulnerability from different types of disasters, effort has been made to ensure that no risk is underestimated. Effects: Impacts of risks were identified based on the effects related to the six types of harm: human impact, direct economic loss, loss of life, environmental impact, social distress and psychological distress. Human impacts include the effect that the risk has on the people such as death, illness and injuries. Economic impact includes the assessment of financial losses due to destruction of production facilities and infrastructure. Political impacts include the influence of politics on the stability of the country. The probability – this address how likely a condition or an event will occur. Risk assessment was carried out by considering the impact and the probability of occurrence of risk on the community. The criteria for assessing the probability are provided below. Table 1: Classification of probability Rank Probability Probability 1 Extremely Unlikely (EU) May occur under exceptional circumstances; at least once in every 500 years. 2 Very Unlikely (VU) The risk is not expected to occur; it may occur once in between 100 and 500 years; no incident recorded. 3 Unlikely (U) Event may occur sometime; little evidence or randomly recorded events; event may occur once every 10 to 100 years. 4 Likely (L) Event may to occur; incidents recorded regularly and strong evidence; may occur once every 1 to 10 years. 5 Very Likely (VL) High level of incidences; strong evidence; event occurs more than once in one year. From the table above, the risks were ranked from 1 to 5 with the scales of Extremely Unlikely as value 1 and Very Likely as value 5. Table 2: Classification of Impact Rank Impact Description 1 Very Low (VL) The number of people affected is limited; results in 0 to 4 fatalities and minor injuries that may be treated using first aid. Localized, simple contamination. Cost less than US$200,000. Localized disruption of the infrastructure or community services 2 Low (L) Between 4 to 8 fatalities and serious injuries; reasonable number of people affected; require medical treatment and hospitalization; considerable number of people locally displaced for 2 to 8 days; people supported through local arrangements. Short duration effects; regional simple contamination. The destruction cost between US$ 200,000 and $1million. Considerable inconvenient, but little functions within the community. 3 Moderate (M) The number of people affected is significant; fatalities are between 8 and 20; extensive or multiple serious injuries; the number of people hospitalized is significant. Upto 4000 people evacuated; people displaced for 2 to 8 days. The affected individuals require regional support. Extended, localized, heavy contamination. Destruction between $1million and $2 million. Some services are available, partial functioning in the community 4 High (H) Between 20 and 50 fatalities and up to 16000 people evacuated and up to 100 serious injuries. There is heavy contamination whose effects is widespread and extends for a long time. The destruction is high at $2million and $7million. Poor community functioning and minimum emergency services available. 5 Very High (VH) More than 50 people are killed during this event, significant number of injuries and more than 16000 people evacuated. Very heavy and widespread contamination whose effects are felt for a long duration. Cost more than $7 million. Significant disruption and serious damage to infrastructure, key services lost for a long time period, and with no significant support on the community it is unable to function. The impacts of risks are ranked depending on the effects of the lives of humans and animals such as health and injuries, and the effects on the infrastructure and the environment. The impact of risks were ranked from 1 to 5 with the latter being an event with the highest impact. This was based on the effect of risk on health, welfare and life of humans and animals as well as social infrastructure and environment. It should be noted that the no value was allocated to the loss of life. Also the costs being high cannot warrant a risk to be rated as having extremely very high impact. The risk matrix is provided in the figure below Figure 1: Risk Assessment Matrix Table 3: Background of risks in India Category Risk Description Environmental Floods Floods are the most widespread and common disaster in India. In July 2013, devastating flood and landslides triggered by early monsoon hit Uttarakhand in northern India, affecting more than 4,000 villages. It was reported that over 5700 people died (Olsson, 2015). In June 2012, flooding occurred in Brahmaputra river during monsoon rains, affecting more than 200 villages and displacing about 2 million people in the Assam state, north east of India. Another devastating flood occurred in Himalayan region of northern India in August 2012. This was triggered by cloudburst which caused flashfloods and landslides leaving 31 people dead (Olsson, 2015). Droughts A historical synopsis by Helsloot (2012) indicates that drought has caused massive famine and catastrophic reduction of crop yield in India and China, causing the dead of millions of people due to shortage of food grains (Helsloot, 2012). The desert located in the Deccan Plateau and the western region of India has recurring droughts caused by acute shortage of rain. The drought affects 40 million hectares of land and 50 million people every year. The rainfall in India varies from 100m in west of Rajasthan to over 11,400mm at in Meghalaya in north eastern. The variation in seasonal and annual rainfall at one place is high, leading to floods and droughts. In fact, a third of India is prone to drought (Kale, 2014). Earthquakes India is prone to earthquakes that range from moderate to high intensity, but mainly around Himalayan belt along the northern region of Assam to Kashmir. The most recent occurrence which is the worst disaster occurred in December 2004 following a magnitude of 9.0 at the coats of northern Sumatra (Kusky & Cullen, 2010). The earthquake of the Great Ran of Kutch whose magnitude was 7.8 in is one of the major earthquake in west of India that occurred in 19th century. It led to the death of 3200 people and hundreds of towns badly damage or destroyed (Kusky & Cullen, 2010). Environmental pollution (Air, water and soil) There have been many challenges on the environment due to rapid increase in population along with urban migration and industrialization. There has been rapid increase progressive pollution of the environment, air, soils and water with gaseous and solid emissions from industries and automobiles, and agricultural chemicals. Increase in agricultural production has led to increase in the use of agrochemicals products, and the industrialization has led to the production of gaseous emissions and effluents. It requires development of limiting techniques like those used in U.S. (Jugale, 2009; Lal, Hansen & Uphoff, 2016). Political Information and Cyber Insecurity India risk survey 2012 indicated that cyber crime was the leading crime in India, thus posing as a serious threat. One of the serious concerns relates to information espionage, that involves the extraction of confidential data and information without the knowledge of the holder. With the growing number of internet usage in India, and with inadequate expertise in cyber crime, the number of cyber crimes has been increasing at a faster rate. A report indicated that more than 9,000 websites which include those belonging to government departments were hacked (Kumar & Mittal, 2012). Civil conflicts Communal violence is one of the risks in India. In 1980s, disputes relating to Kashmir led to conflicts between the Indian government and the Sikhs and to Muslim-Hindu antagonism. Hindu activists destroyed Ayodhya Mosque in 1992, triggering Muslim-Hindu riots that led to the dead of more than 2,000 people. The riots in the Gujarat state in 2002 killed 1,000 people, mainly Muslim (DeRouen & Heo, 2007). Technical Road traffic accidents According the status report on road safety for the globe in 2013 by World health Organization (WHO), over 231,000 people die because of road traffic accidents in India annually. About half of the fatalities are the pedestrians, cyclists and motorists (WHO, 2013). Therefore, the government should focus more on road safety programs. Building collapse In April 2013, a seven storey building collapsed in Shil Mumbra district in Maharashtra. It led to the death of 74 people and hundred other people other people survived (Maheshwari & Kumar, 2016). Social Corruption, frauds and bribery A survey undertaken by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), showed that India is the 2nd most important foreign direct investment destination between 2010 and 2012 (Ahmed, 2014). Although India has promising investment opportunities, transnational companies face unique challenges. Corruption and frauds has complicated business in India, which may discourage the investors (Chellaney, 2012). Health Systems According to WHO, among 192 countries India accounts for a significant part of the global burden disease, with more than a third of the death due to childhood diseases, almost a quarter due to diarrhea, a third due to leprosy, 30% due to prenatal conditions and 50% due to Japanese encephalitis (Sengupta, 2016). Another report indicated that 36% of the deaths are attributed to nutritional deficiency, prenatal and maternal conditions, and communicable diseases. A quarter of child death and a fifth of maternal death in the globe occur in India (Balarajan, Selvaraj and Subramanian, 2011). The above risks are transferred to the risk matrix, as it is used to assess the effects of risk and provide the recommendation. The recommendation mainly focuses on the action taken by the government to mitigation, prevention and to response to an emergency. The matrix table for the above risks is shown below. Table 4: Risk matrix for India ID# Risk Impact (I) Probability (P) Risk score I*P Effects Recommendations 1 Flash floods and landslides H(7) H(5) 35 Loss of lives due to drowning Water flooding the villages and major infrastructure Loss of agricultural production Compensation through by insurance to help the living standards of the people Providing earning warning to the villagers for them to move a safer ground. Building barriers and dykes to preventing frequent flood 2 Drought H(6) H(4) 24 Loss of agricultural production Death due to starvation Food price inflation Providing irrigation to farms Provide early warning to people in order save food for use during dry seasons. Relief food is also necessary. 3 Earthquakes VH(8) H(4) 32 Loss of buildings and property Loss of life Disruption of economy Constructing buildings which have high resistance to earthquake Providing early warning programs 4 Environmental pollution H(7) H(6) 42 The citizens become sick and vulnerable to diseases Children grow up with asthma and other respiratory illnesses Population becomes vulnerable to respiratory infections (Wang & Mauzerall, 2006) Use alternative source of energy Decongest cities and use solar cars to reduce urban emissions from traffic 5 Civil conflicts M(5) H(5) 25 Threaten the institution of the state and undermines the sate legitimacy Loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure It increase the risk for private and public investment (Imai & Weinstein, 2000) Promoting the rule of law and order Addressing the issues that may cause conflicts such as marginalization 6 Road traffic accidents Loss of lives due to injuries Proper planning of urban growth and settlement 7 Corruption, fraud and bribery M(6) H(5) 30 Damages the reputation of a country and makes the investors to shy away Creating legal regulations and policies that address the problem Ensuring that the policies are followed irrespective of positions (Schoeman, 2014) 8 Information and cyber insecurity M(5) H(4) 20 Unauthorized access to sensitive information by hackers Create misunderstanding between India and other countries affected. Create new security frameworks Relevant and sensitive databases should be isolated and fragmented. Prosecute the perpetrators Creating effective policy and legal framework that will address cyber attacks and associated issues. 9 Collapsing buildings H(7) U(3) 21 Financial losses to business May lead to damage to the nearby building Loss of lives Demolishing illegal buildings, starting with the most dangerous ones Ensuring that building and regulation standards are followed. 10 Health M(6) H(4) 24 Financial loss for individuals and the government Poor national productivity which lead economic loss Loss of lives due to diseases Employ more health professionals and research workers to deal with emerging diseases. Providing early warning about the emerging diseases and its spread From the matrix above, floods and environmental pollution has got the highest rates of 42 each for the risk score. This shows that the two risks have the greatest potential risk in the country as it will affect the economy, the political environment, social relationship and human lives. The categories with a red colour indicate that the risk is high. This means that the government of India should take immediate action. Other risks are also important, but those with the higher risk should resolved first. 1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) The figure below shows the approach taken to identify some of the faults and causes of these negative events Figure 2: Fault tree analysis of risks affecting India The topmost event in the fault tree analysis above is the national losses. It occurs as a result of subsidiary events through the logical conjunction ‘or’, ‘not’ and ‘and’. The national losses occur due to risks on the environment, social events, political condition and technology. The probability of occurrence of the topmost event is estimated based on the probabilities of the basic events and the interconnecting logic. As shown in the matrix, the event that has the highest probability is environmental pollution. The main sources of pollution are industries and urbanization which cause pollution on air, water and soil. Huge amount of smoke is produced from the industries. The use of or-gate indicates that there event occurs due to the combination of two events that occurs at the same time. For example, the industries are releasing huge amount of smoke, while at the same time urbanization and traffic congestion results in release in large amount of smoke to the atmosphere. For instance, by comparing air pollution and occurrence of technical risks, we estimate the probabilities of contributing events. The probabilities of contributing events are calculated as follows. Or-gate: P (Environmental risks) = P (earthquakes) x P (floods and landslides) x P (droughts) = 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.25 = 0.75 And-gate; P (Technical risks) = P (collapsing building) x P (road traffic accidents) = 0.2 x 0.3 = 0.06 This indicates that there is higher probability that environmental pollution will occur more than the probability that the technical risks will occur. The government of India should take into consideration the fact that environmental pollution contributes more to the national loss. 1.3 Action Plan for the Risks From the analysis of probability of occurrence and impact of risks, flash floods and landslides, environmental pollution, earthquakes and corruption should be prioritized when planning for interventions. India has a GDP of 2.027 trillion. If 1% of the GDP is allocated to intervention programs for the risk identified, then the following categories will be considered. The total amount of money allocated to the risks will be = 1/100 * US$2.027 trillion = US$20.27 billion The condition for allocation is shown below. Environmental risks: 40% will be allocated to this risk. This is because environmental risks have the highest impact and high probability of occurrence. Environmental state plays a critical role in the performance of economic activities in the country, which influence the effectiveness and efficiency of the people. For example it has direct impact human health. The funds will be allocated according to the following ratio: earthquakes preparedness and response will be allocated 27%, floods and landslides will be allocated 40% and droughts will be allocated 33%. These are shown in the chart below. Figure 3: Allocation of funds for environmental risks From the chart above, floods and landslides will receive a larger share of US$3.24 billion. US$2.7 billion will be allocated to droughts and US$2.2 billion will be allocated for earthquakes. Some of these funds will be used to build dykes to prevent floods; some will be used to provide early warning for earthquakes and floods and in purchase of the equipments used in evacuation. Technical risks: 30% will be allocated to this risk. This type of risks has the second highest impact and occurrence frequency. It includes the collapse of the buildings and road accidents. The allocation will be; building collapse (0.6) and road accidents (0.4). Some funds will be used to transport facilities and equipment. The finds will also be used to to fund the regulatory units who ensure that the building. Other funds will be invested in used for advertisent and conducting campaigns for road safety. Social risks: 23% will be allocated to social risk. This will be equivalent to US$4.75. The funds will be used for scientific studies of disease in the national laboratories in India. The funds will also be used to build health facilities in rural areas as well provide health education and campaigns. In addition, the funds will be used to purchase drugs and creating awareness about the diseases. Political risks: 7% will be allocated to political risks. This is equivalent to U$1.44. The funds will be used train personnel who will be specialized in will track online criminals as well as securing the government databases. 1.4 Conclusion This study has provided an overview of the risks that the environment and the people of India. Identification, assessment and monitoring are the major step towards building the foundation for an effective management and planning for emergency and development of the country’s resilience. The risk identify include: floods, droughts, health issues. The method of establishing these values have been discussed. The pollution of air and water have is common. There is pollution form industries and from automobiles. References Ahmed S., (2014). 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Research handbook on climate change adaptation law. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. Read More