Demography: Mortality and Standardization - Assignment Example

DEMOGRAPHY By (Name) Code+ course name Professor’s name University name City, State Date Age (x) Bangladesh (2010) Japan (2010) ASFR (per 1000) Female Pop. ASFR (per 1000) Female Pop. 15-19 118.2 8,180,000 5.4 2,963,000 20-24 153.3 7,434,000 39.6 3,315,000 25-29 106.7 6,719,000 91.4 3,833,000 30-34 56.2 6,269,000 93.2 4,247,000 35-39 21.8 5,565,000 39.3 4,828,000 40-44 6.1 4,335,000 6.2 4,265,000 45-49 3.0 4,032,000 0.1 3,914,000 For each of female population (i.e. in Bangladesh and in Japan) calculate: a. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2010. Bangladeshi TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx) =5 x (118.2+153.3+106.7+56.2+21.8+6.1+3.0) =2326.5 per 1000 women or 2.3265 per woman Japan TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx) =5x (5.4+39.6+91.4+93.2+39.3+6.2+0.1) =1376 per 1000 women or 1.376 per woman b. The General Fertility Rate (GFR) in 2010. General Fertility Rate is the birth rate of women of child bearing age (15-44) = (Total birth/ no. Of women aged 15-44) x 1000 Based on cumulative frequency, GFR of Bangladesh = (42,534,000/38,502,000) x 1000 =1104.721 For Japan= (27,365,000/23,451,000)1000 =1166.901 c. The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) in 2010, assuming the sex ratio at birth is 104 for Bangladeshi population and 106 for Japanese population. For the Bangladeshi, GRR in 2010, = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR) = 2.3265 x 100/ (100+ 104) =1.140 For Japan, GRR in 2010, = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR) =1.376 x 100/ (100+ 106) =0.0668 d. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in 2010, assuming that female mortality for both populations is described by the 2010 life tables for each country. Selected values from the Tx column of the two life tables are presented in the table below (l0 = 100,000). (Note: Use 3 dcp. for TFR, GFR, GRR and NRR). Age (x) Bangladeshi female Japanese female 5Lx Tx 5Lx Tx 15 455,185 5,380,375 497,965 7,132,329 20 452,440 4,925,190 497,427 6,634,364 25 449,475 4,472,750 496,765 6,136,937 30 445,740 4,023,275 495,906 5,640,172 35 441,405 3,577,535 494,729 5,144,266 40 435,905 3,136,130 493,020 4,649,537 45 428,520 2,700,225 490,458 4,156,517 50 2,271,705 3,666,059 Survival Probability [0 tends to (x, x+5)] Age (x) Bangladeshi women Japanese women 15-19 0.91037 0.99593 20-24 0.90488 0.994854 25-29 0.89895 0.99353 30-34 0.89148 0.991812 35-39 0.88281 0.989458 40-44 0.87181 0.98604 45-49 0.85704 0.980916 Proportion of female Birth ASFR x Survival prob. X prop. of female Birth Age (x) Bangladeshi Japan Bangladeshi Japan 15-19 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 52.727 2.608 20-24 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 67.972 19.107 25-29 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 47.000 44.042 30-34 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 24.550 44.832 35-39 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 9.430 18.860 40-44 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 2.606 2.965 45-49 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 1.260 0.048 205.545 132.462 NRR for Bangladeshi =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000 = (5 x 205.545)/1000 =1.028 NRR for Japan =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000 = (5 x 132.462)/1000 =0.662 The following table presents the age specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japan in the period 2000-2009. Use the information provided in the table to answer Questions e and f. Age 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009   Age-specific fertility rate (per 1000) 15 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.18 16 0.67 0.78 0.89 0.87 0.77 0.68 0.70 0.67 0.69 0.69 17 2.45 2.74 2.87 2.65 2.54 2.27 2.36 2.19 2.37 2.36 18 5.46 5.75 5.94 5.46 5.32 4.91 5.06 4.84 5.18 4.96 19 10.35 11.00 11.29 10.60 10.51 9.70 9.45 9.42 9.72 9.43 20-24 33.99 34.92 34.96 33.42 33.01 32.03 33.04 32.31 32.48 31.17 25-29 93.86 90.49 87.40 84.06 82.01 78.87 81.57 81.18 81.95 80.95 30-39 67.27 66.04 65.52 65.05 65.92 64.70 68.44 70.39 72.42 73.41 40-49 2.61 2.68 2.86 3.05 3.26 3.33 3.69 4.10 4.42 4.75 e. What is the cumulative fertility rate for the 2005 birth cohort to age 18? The cumulative frequency of birth for the 2005 to age 18 = 8.01 (per 1000 women) f. What is the total fertility rate for Japan in 2008? The total fertility rate of Japan in 2008 = 5 (209.38) =1046.9 per 1000 women Mortality and Standardization The numbers of population by age on 30/6/2010 and the age specific death rates (ASDR) per 1000 population in 2010 for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population are given in the following table:   Japan Bangladesh Number of Deaths ( pop x ASDR/1000) Age x Female Pop. ASDR (per 1000) Female Pop. ASDR (per 1000) Japan Bangladesh 0-4 2,577,000 0.586 8,816,000 17.149 1,510 151,186 9-May 2,723,000 0.08 9,179,000 1.4 218 12,851 14-Oct 2,877,000 0.071 8,820,000 0.739 204 6,518 15-19 2,929,000 0.164 8,180,000 1.2 480 9,816 20-24 3,106,000 0.255 7,434,000 1.22 792 9,070 25-29 3,531,000 0.29 6,719,000 1.411 1,024 9,481 30-34 4,073,000 0.408 6,269,000 1.929 1,662 12,093 35-39 4,761,000 0.565 5,565,000 1.98 2,690 11,019 40-44 4,251,000 0.831 4,335,000 3.042 3,533 13,187 45-49 3,932,000 1.263 4,032,000 3.799 4,966 15,318 50-54 3,812,000 1.935 3,033,000 6.971 7,376 21,143 55-59 4,414,000 2.763 2,290,000 8.819 12,196 20,196 60-64 5,062,000 3.94 1,787,000 16.071 19,944 28,719 65-69 4,304,000 5.953 1,406,000 29.601 25,622 41,619 70-74 3,742,000 9.832 1,033,000 53.709 36,791 55,481 75-79 3,355,000 18.01 674,000 67.189 60,424 45,285 80-84 2,643,000 34.614 359,000 87.149 91,485 31,287 85+ 2,716,000 107.652 162,000 275.4 292,383 44,615   64,808,000   80,093,000   563,300 538,884 Total Using the mortality data provided in the previous page, estimate: a. The actual number of deaths and crude death rates (CDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population in 2010. Note: use 0 decimal places (dcp.) for the number of deaths and 3 dcp. for CDR. From the table above, the Total Number of Deaths in 2010 female population of: Japan=563,300 Bangladeshi=538,884 Crude Death Rates (CDR) for the countries, Japan: CDR= (Total no. of Deaths /population) x1000 (560472.475 /64,808,000)1000 =8.648 Bangladeshi: CDR = (538,884/80,093,000) 1000 =6.728 b. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, calculate the indirectly standardised death rates (ISDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population (Note: use 3 dcp. decimal point for SDR). Expected number of death= sum[(ASDR standard x population Agex)/1000   Japan Bangladesh Age x Female Pop. Expected number of death ASDR (per 1000) Female Pop. Expected number of death ASDR (per 1000) 0-4 2,577,000 1,510 0.586 8,816,000 151,186 17.149 9-May 2,723,000 218 0.08 9,179,000 12,851 1.4 14-Oct 2,877,000 204 0.071 8,820,000 6,518 0.739 15-19 2,929,000 480 0.164 8,180,000 9,816 1.2 20-24 3,106,000 792 0.255 7,434,000 9,070 1.22 25-29 3,531,000 1,024 0.29 6,719,000 9,481 1.411 30-34 4,073,000 1,662 0.408 6,269,000 12,093 1.929 35-39 4,761,000 2,690 0.565 5,565,000 11,019 1.98 40-44 4,251,000 3,533 0.831 4,335,000 13,187 3.042 45-49 3,932,000 4,966 1.263 4,032,000 15,318 3.799 50-54 3,812,000 7,376 1.935 3,033,000 21,143 6.971 55-59 4,414,000 12,196 2.763 2,290,000 20,196 8.819 60-64 5,062,000 19,944 3.94 1,787,000 28,719 16.071 65-69 4,304,000 25,622 5.953 1,406,000 41,619 29.601 70-74 3,742,000 36,791 9.832 1,033,000 55,481 53.709 75-79 3,355,000 60,424 18.01 674,000 45,285 67.189 80-84 2,643,000 91,485 34.614 359,000 31,287 87.149 85+ 2,716,000 292,383 107.652 162,000 44,615 275.4   64,808,000   80,093,000   Total 563,300 538,884 Standardized mortality ratio= (Actual deaths/ Expected Deaths) For Japan =560472.475/563,300 =0.995 For Bangladesh =538,884/538,884=1.000 Indirect SDR= SMR x CDR standard population For Japan=8.648 x0.995 =8.605 deaths per 1000 population For Bangladesh=6.728x1.000 =6.728 deaths per 1000 population c. If the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for Bangladeshi population is estimated 4.52 and for Japanese population is estimated 1.00. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, what are the new values of the indirectly standardized mortality rates (ISDR) for Bangladeshi population and for Japanese population? If the estimated SMR= 4.52 and 1 for Bangladeshi and Japan respectively, then the new values of ISDR For Bangladesh= 4.54 x 6.728 = 30.545 For Japan=1 x 8.648 = 8.648 A.3. Population Projection [25 Marks] Project the female population of Japan from 2010 to 2015 with the following assumptions: Female mortality is constant at the levels described by the 2010 Japanese female life table, Fertility declines by 5% from its level in 2010 levels, The sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females. The additions of population in 2010 are also affected by net female migration. The estimated numbers of females in Japan by age on 30/6/2010 and age-specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japanese in 2010 are presented in the following table: Age (x) Number of females on 30/06/2010 ASFR (per 1000) in 2010 Proportion Surviving x à x+5 Projected Female pop. before Migration Net Female Migrants in 2015 Projected Female Population in 2015 0-4 2,577,000 0.9993 2,577,000 -3,299 2573701 5-9 2,723,000 0.9997 2575196.1 -977 257419.1 10-14 2,877,000 0.9994 2722183.1 174 2722357.1 15-19 2,929,000 5.4 0.9987 2875273.8 7,771 2883044.8 20-24 3,106,000 39.6 0.9987 2925192.3 10,649 293584.3 25-29 3,531,000 91.4 0.9983 3101962.2 -1,898 3100064.2 30-34 4,073,000 93.2 0.9976 3524997.3 -3,462 3521535.3 35-39 4,761,000 39.3 0.9966 4063224.8 -1,630 4061594.8 40-44 4,251,000 6.2 0.9948 4228894.8 401 4229295.8 45-49 3,932,000 0.1 0.9921 3900937.2 252 3901189.2 50-54 3,812,000 0.9885 3900937.2 -139 3900798.2 55-59 4,414,000 0.9835 3768162 856 3769018 60-64 5,062,000 0.9598 4341169 2,306 434375 65-69 4,304,000 0.9627 4858507.6 1,105 4859612.6 70-74 3,742,000 0.9348 4143460.8 724 4144184.8 75-79 3,355,000 0.8803 3498021.6 406 3498427.6 80-84 2,643,000 0.7762 2953406.5 139 2953545.5 85+ 2,716,000 0.4725 1248817.5 21 128838.5 Total 64,808,000 51,232,586 Note: Use 5 decimal places for proportion surviving ( x à x+5) Use 0 decimal places for the projected population Some values from the Tx column of an abridged life table (l0 = 100,000) for Japanese females (2010) are presented in the following table: Age x 5Lx Tx Age x 5Lx Tx 0 498,769 8,627,756 50 486,565 3,666,062 5 498,414 8,128,987 55 480,988 3,179,497 10 498,244 7,630,572 60 473,053 2,698,509 15 497,965 7,132,329 65 461,643 2,225,456 20 497,427 6,634,364 70 444,446 1,763,813 25 496,765 6,136,937 75 415,454 1,319,367 30 495,905 5,640,172 80 365,730 903,913 35 494,729 5,144,267 85 283,872 538,183 40 493,020 4,649,538 90 254,311 45 490,456 4,156,518 Reference List Frejka, T., & Sardon, J.-P. (2004). Childbearing trends and prospects in low-fertility countries: a cohort analysis. Dordrecht [u.a.], Kluwer. United Nations. (2009). Completing the fertility transition. New York, N.Y., United Nations. Read More