Five Roads to the Future by Paul Starobin - Book Report/Review Example

 Five Roads to the Future by Paul Starobin Ours is the power, ours is the opportunity - and ours will be the responsibility whether we like it or not Henry Robinson Luce Introduction “Five Roads to the Future. Power in the Next Global Age” is the new shocking book of the famous American journalist and writer Paul Starobin, a staff correspondent for National Journal and a contributing editor to The Atlantic Monthly. The main message Starobin conveys in his book is that America will soon stop its being as powerful and huge country due to many foolish things made by the government, such as war in Yugoslavia and Iraq. American international aggression caused the world economic crisis, which has hurt the USA much stronger than other countries. Due to this aggressive policy America has lost its former creditability and huge economic potential. What is the future of this country? Paul Starobin names five key possible scenarios: 1. Chaos. It can last either temporarily until the new power balance or turn into indefinitely long condition; 2. Multi-polar world. In the center of this scenario there is a conventional array of multinational states, whose motivation for taking part in global affairs is traditional nationalism; 3. Chinese century. In this case China with its huge economic potential and human resources, which have been developing, while the USA were spending their money and human lives in the mountains of Afghanistan, will become the new superpower. Starobin thinks that China will rather take care of preserving economical potential than of protecting “the ideals of democracy”. The writer also considers the opportunity of Islamic Century noting that this variant would be much worse for the world. 4. An Era of Global City States. This scenario provides the end of the nation-state as we understand it. 5. The Universal Global Government. This scenario provides the authorities of the United Nations with possible transfer of a part of its global functions to such regional bodies like Eurozone, CAFTA and NAFTA. This global government will act on behalf of the oligarchic layers providing minimal essential living resources for masses. Starobin names several reasons for decline of the USA power: 1. Failure to get a decisive victory in Afghanistan and Iraq and as a result, loss of military potential; 2. Loss of trust and therefore loss of promising economical opportunities all over the world; 3. Weakening of dollar’s positions due to excessive external debt as well as turning of the USA into the nation of consumers from the nation of manufacturers; 4. Absence of world moral authority (Starobin 2010). “Five Roads to the Future” consists of three parts: the 1st part deals with the story of development of the USA power and world influence; the 2nd part represents the author’s investigation of the reasons of American contemporary crisis; the 3rd part offers the author’s prognosis on what may happen further and this is where the 5 key scenarios are actually depicted. On page 55 the author gives a summary of the rise of American civilization as a result of a range of happy occasions and chances than wise decisions of national leaders. On page 76 he notes that great civilizations develop rhythmically but it does not matter that each down should be followed by the up. All the aspects of Americanism: manufacturing, finance, architecture, art, healthcare, infrastructure, digital technologies etc are considered by Starobin to be almost unacceptable (pp81 - 93) Chapter 5 is devoted to describing military problems (excessive militarism) and huge external debts of the USA. Combination of these factors together with American exceptionalism result in US’s losing their allies on the far frontiers that leads to loss of respect and authority in the world. On page 101 the author notes that the world does not share the US point of view of Islamic fundamentalism as a threat to peace. On page 104 Starobin points at the contradiction between the US contemporary role of global policeman with its traditional seek for isolation. On page 107 he says that despite the fact that as a result of 9/11 attacks America had to gain the worldwide respect and support, it actually lost its positions due to aggressive military strategy (Starobin 2010). Chapter 6 of the book is devoted to return of Russia to global politics. The author compares its first-rate military potential with the third rate economy. Despite of contemporary weakness of Russia, it influences the places where American influence becomes too week, for example, Georgia. For me it seems that this chapter is not too convincing. The author should have dedicated it to China as the most probable world superpower after the USA (Starobin 2010). In Chapter 7 the chaos scenario is depicted. Its main aspects are oil spots, burning points, regions of chaos, threat of narcotraficantes and Al Qaeda. On page 139 Starobin names Turkey as one of the potential nests for chaos due to its geographical position on the crossroads of civilizations, continents and cultures. On page 151 he tries to depict the scenario of so called “happy chaos” but this is, to my point of view, another weak aspect of this book. It is difficult to imagine that someone attracted by raising living standards can find something positive in chaos even if it is “happy”. The author himself underlines that very soon any type of chaos leads to a new feudalism, which in its turn will cause deepening of social differences (Starobin 2010). Chapter 8 is devoted to multi-polar world. The author names the prospect of multi-polar worlds to be the most fundamental and global. The history of civilization has never seen anything of this kind. Starobin again names China is one of the potential superpowers able to maintain the balance of power in the world. On page 166 Starobin speaks about the idea of Americano-Indian alliance. On pages 176 – 179 he underlines that the possibility of Europe to have unified global interventionist president is very weak. I agree with him as it seems today that European countries are so busy with solving its own financial problems that it will hardly export their militarism over their own borders (Starobin 2010). Here Starobin also analyzes the attempts of Russia to return its former power, but he considers this is hardly possible. Russian economy is based purely on oil and gas and its military potential grounds only on aging nuclear weapon. On page 180 he calls Iran to be a regional power center while Japan for some reasons is not mentioned in this chapter at all, despite the fact that it is the second greatest national economy (Starobin 2010). Chapter 9 is devoted to Chinese century. The author begins with the history of the country. It seems to me that the author makes too strong stress on China as the only potential superpower in the world. The fact is that China has never attempted to completely dominate in the world politics. There are no reasons to think that the situation will change greatly. Chapter 10 narrates about city states. It seems to me that the author overestimates the meaning of a nation-state as judging by the example of former Yugoslavia one can see how easy one nation-state can turn into a lot of nation-states. Chapter 11 tells about universal civilization. However, for me it is difficult to imagine that a global civilization can take all the power from governing elites when they already represent a kind of global government (Starobin 2010). Chapter 12 is called “America after America” and here the author expresses his vision of California as a separate nation-state. However, with the current social difference between haves and have-nots and with its terrible financial state I can hardly imagine California taking additional financial burden and turning into a separate nation-state. Conclusion As a conclusion I want to express my opinion that in its book Starobin is too quick to declare the moral and economic decline of the USA. Even if we suppose the possibility of scenarios depicted by the author, it is undoubtedly that the USA will preserve its role of the bastion of liberty and democracy inspiring other countries to follow the example. America will surely preserve its leading positions in Western Hemisphere and in alliance with Brazil, Chile and Canada it will renew and maintain its position of one of the most powerful and influential countries in the world. Perhaps, this is the scenario No 6 but to me it seems more probable than those Starobin described in his book. I have read “Five Roads to the Future” with a great interest as this book is very well written. Unlike other historical works it does not lead the reader into the common trap of traditional American heroism. On the contrary, it depicts some new scenarios of the future of one of the greatest states ever existed. Some of these scenarios may seem doubtful but there are no doubts that the writer perfectly understand all the network of global political affairs and presents a very interesting analysis of them. Works Cited Starobin, Paul. Five Roads to the Future: Power in the Next Global Age, Penguin Books. 2010 Read More